Selection Committee's Dilemma

Maryland Terrapins or Eastern Tennessee St. Bucs?

Who should the NCAA Tournament selection committee choose?

The Bucs (23-4, 14-0) are in the midst of an undefeated conference season (albeit in the Southern Conference) on their way to finishing a great regular season. But what would happen if the Bucs were to lose in the conference tournament? Obviously, the automatic bid for the conference winner would go to another team.

But would the selection committee award the Bucs an at-large bid for their overall great season?

The debate continues year after year over whether the final at-large births should be given to mid-major squads that had exceptional years but didn't win their conference tournaments, or to teams with 18 or so wins sitting in the middle of the pack of a major conference.

Just look at Maryland's performance this year. At one point this season, the ACC looked primed to send seven out of nine teams to the NCAA Tournament. But after the Terps' recent string of losses, that looks like a stretch.

Maryland sits at 14-10 overall and 5-8 in the conference, which in the Terps defense does have the nation's highest RPI rating. Their individual RPI rating is the 34th best in the nation, which at this point neither helps nor hurts their postseason case.

Entering their last two conference games, the Terps need to win at least one just to finish at 6-9 in the conference -- a less than stellar mark. But if the Terps somehow win all of their remaining games and have a good showing in the ACC Tournament, they will create an interesting dilemma. Will they or should they get an invitation over a team like Eastern Tennessee St.?

Here is a little tournament math. There are 65 tournament bids awarded and with 31 conferences, each with an automatic bid to their tournament or regular season champion, that leaves 34 at-large births.

But obviously, many of these are accounted for. All of the top 20 teams are most likely assured entry barring a total meltdown from now until Selection Sunday. But the real problem arises when teams in power conferences win their conference tournaments after having horrible years.

Such would be the case if the Clemson Tigers ran the table in the ACC Tournament. The selection committee might hold it against the lower ACC teams and remove them from the field of 65, or it may cost a smaller conference school its ticket to the dance.

Another team that fits the role of a bubble team is the Missouri Tigers (14-10, 8-5). On Tuesday night they scored a huge upgrade on their tournament r‚sum‚ with a double overtime victory over the No. 6 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys.

But for a team once ranked in the top ten, they have fallen to a very bad position. Their conference record helps their r‚sum‚ (along with this big win), but an RPI rating of 40th for team with a 14-10 record certainly does not bode well.

The Big Ten Conference will also create a bit of controversy with its teams, considering the wealth of mediocre teams that fill our nation's heartland. It has definitely been a down year for this usually strong conference and the number of bids handed to Big Ten teams should reflect that.

One bubble team that slipped off the fence this week was the Michigan Wolverines. At 15-9 overall and 6-7 in the conference, the Wolverines loss to the conference leading Michigan St. Spartans, effectively ended their postseason hopes.

In order for this team to get invited with an RPI rating of 54th, coach Tommy Amaker better get the "Blue and Maize" ready to run the table in the Big Ten Tournament.

Even a team like the Florida Gators (15-8, 6-6) has fallen into the status of a bubble team and has become more vulnerable with the loss of sophomore Christian Dreijer. Dreijer left midseason to play for a team in Europe.

Florida has the 16th highest RPI rating, which is definitely important for their postseason resume. The committee allows leniency concerning teams' records for teams in power conferences, such as the SEC, which has the second strongest RPI rating.

Will this be the year of the oft-forgotten mid-major or the mediocre power conference team?