To be free, or not to be?

Contract controversies are always swirling during spring training, and so far this spring has been no different. There were many who wondered if Oakland A's third baseman Eric Chavez would get a lucrative extension. Yes, you read that sentence correctly, the words "Oakland A's" and "lucrative extension" were in the same sentence together. And yesterday afternoon, Oakland actually followed through, signing Chavez to a six-year extension believed to be worth $66 million, which would be the biggest contract in franchise history.

Unfortunately the Boston Red Sox do not have to deal with just one contract controversy: they have four key players who will be free agents after the season (catcher Jason Varitek, pitchers Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez, and shortstop Nomar Garciaparra). They likely won't be able to keep everyone, so the question is: who to keep?

As much as Boston fans love Nomar, of all the free agents in that group, Garciaparra should be last on the list if he does not drop his unrealistic contract demands. If he maintains his current stance, the Sox management may let the beloved Nomah walk in a Mo Vaughn-esque fashion, and the ownership would be completely justified in doing so.

According to numerous reports, the Red Sox offered Garciaparra a generous four year, $60 million contract last spring. However, the shortstop quickly rejected the deal. At that point, the Red Sox decided to reduce their offer to four years and $48 million because of the current dynamics of the market.

Apparently Nomar was insulted and is holding out for something in the $16 million per year range. The Boston management does not want to alienate the fan base, but they surely know that paying Nomar anything more than about $13 million per year would be foolish.

The bottom line is that Garciaparra's play has been declining for some time. Anyone who has watched the Red Sox over the last two years can see that the Boston shortstop is not the Nomar of 1999 and 2000. In those two years, Garciaparra posted OPS numbers of 1.021 and 1.033, respectively. Since coming back from his wrist injury in 2001, Garciaparra has posted OPS' of .880 and .869. Not too shabby, but those aren't numbers worthy of a $16 million player (unless you're thinking of Derek Jeter, in which case, just remember that George Steinbrenner is a lunatic).

Let's not forget Nomar is already thirty years old, with a history of injury. In addition, statistics show that Garciaparra's approach at the plate has actually gotten worse over the last few years. Numbers show that Nomar swung at a far higher number of first pitches in 2003 than in past years. That has to make Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein cringe.

If that isn't enough cause for concern, look at Garciaparra's numbers down the stretch in 2003. He batted .170 in the entire month of September, posting an anemic .599 OPS. In the playoffs, he didn't fare much better (.660 OPS). That combines to about 150 at-bats. That's more than a slump; he was either hiding an injury or he's lost some bat speed.

The Boston management should wait out this season and see how Garciaparra performs. If he's the superstar Nomar of 1999, then the shortstop has a case and the team should pony up the dough. But it's more likely the solid Nomar of 2002-3 will show up. That means he should accept a fair deal of around three or four years at $12 or $13 million.

It would be a hard sell to send Nomah his walking papers, but it is the right thing to do if he doesn't change his stubborn ways. After all, as much as Boston loves Garciaparra, the fans want nothing more than to win (for evidence, see the Alex Rodriguez saga). Overpaying for Nomar won't help the team win; Epstein can use $16 million far more efficiently than spending it all on an aging shortstop.

If he wants to stay in Boston as much he says he does, Garciaparra should do what Tim Wakefield and Trot Nixon did: accept a modest and fair offer that helps both sides accomplish the one ultimate goal: winning a World Series Championship.

Over in the National League, the question everyone's wondering is 'who's the team to beat?' The Philadelphia Phillies have to be considered favorites in the Eastern division after the Braves outsourced most of their good players. The real race is going to be in the Central, with the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs battling for the top spot. The San Francisco Giants have to be considered the favorites in the West.

In the end, the battle for the pennant should be a tight one between Houston and Chicago. Both have exceptional pitching staffs, but the edge has to be given to the Astros because of their hitting and bullpen advantages. In addition, it's quite likely that by October, Dusty Baker will have run some of his young, fragile pitchers into the ground.

If the Astros do emerge from the National League, it could make for an interesting story if they are matched up against either the Red Sox or the Yankees. If it's Sox-Astros, there is the return of pitcher and arch-enemy Roger Clemens as well as former manager Jimy Williams. If it's Yankees-Astros, then there is the return of now arch-enemy Roger Clemens as well as former pitcher Andy Pettitte. There are many exciting possibilities, so just sit back and enjoy the start of the season.