It's still the beginning

Well fantasy-fanatics, we've had one full week of baseball and you're team looks terrible, right? Or your team looks amazing and you're going to stay in first place forever, no questions asked. This is obviously not true, since the season just started, and everything is upside down. I mean really, as of Saturday, the Tigers were the best team in baseball and the Mariners were the worst. You've got to be kidding me.

I discussed with some competitors what would be the right amount of time to be taking your league standings seriously, and we decided, after some argument and a spilled bottle of Gatorade, that it's somewhere between three and four weeks. That's right, you've got at least three weeks before you can take any stock in those standings -- it won't do you any good to get too worried or too excited. But then again, it's never too early to trash talk.

So what can you do to get your fantasy team some advantages? My advice is to rock the waiver wire for some cheap gains, and be conservative with your players who you're not sure about. Like I wrote last week, if you drafted a starter that you think will be a sleeper but is actually pretty unproven, then bench him until you're sure. Or if you're waiting for Adam Dunn to replicate last year's powerful start, I'd say let him sit on your bench for at least a week until he shows signs of sweetness.

Regarding the waiver wire, you can always use a spot on your roster for small gains. Especially in terms of closers, it doesn't hurt to guess on a guy who you think might pick up a save or two. Closers really can't do that much to hurt you since they pitch so few innings. But, if they do get the opportunity to close, and get five saves for you over the next month, that will make a difference for your team.

Jose Mesa got one save early last week and owners were clamoring to pick him up for that very reason -- even though the guy is a notorious loser, he's worth the risk. Some no-name closers to pick up if no one else has are Matt Herges, Corey Leskanic, Danny Kolb or Aquilino Lopez.

The same goes for steals, although playing those scrappy, speedy guys may hurt you in terms of batting average. Still not much. Tony Womack came out of nowhere and stole three in one game? Pick him up, see what happens. I'm predicting now that outside of Juan Pierre, there will be few steals to go around this season. And remember -- topping your league in steals will get you the same amount of points as topping your league in any other category. If you don't have a superstar to fill your utility spot, take a chance on a speedy waiver pick-up. Names that come to mind are Dave Roberts, Brian Roberts, Jeff DaVanon, and Christian Guzman.

So let's talk news, shall we? A lot of injuries out there, most notably the recent addition of Andy Pettitte and Jason Schmidt to the DL. They're both on the 15-day, so move them to the Injured Reserve and open up a spot on your roster for someone else. Two catchers who were regarded as sleepers -- Matt LeCroy and Joe Mauer -- also are out. It's a sad day when your catcher gets injured and you have to check the waivers for the pathetic next best guy.

And for those Mark Prior owners out there -- well, it sucks to be you. In about a month you're going to get sick of seeing "DL" next to Prior's name on your roster, and you'll see a trade that's trying to get him cheap and really consider it. DON'T BITE. The kid will come back, the kid will be good. And if you trade away your first or second pick in the draft just because he was injured for half the season, you'll hate yourself in morning.

Other surprises this week: well, Ken Griffey Jr. owners are probably feeling psyched with his two jacks so far, and gloating involving the words, "he's back!" is probably present on most or your message boards. Gloat all you want, he'll be injured soon enough. Another big question mark for drafters was Javy Lopez, since many considered last year's season a fluke. He's looking pretty darn good so far, but I'm not gonna make my judgement yet. The opposite goes for Pat Burrell -- after a terrible season last year, he's now appears to be hitting. Don't hold your breath.

On the upside, Jeff Bagwell isn't slowing down any time soon, Miguel Cabrera picked up where he left on in last year's playoffs and Marcus Giles is tearing it up. Richard Hidalgo is batting higher than he ever did in high school, Magglio Ordonez is on his way to (I'm predicting) an MVP season, and Adrian Beltre may actually be worth holding onto this season. Oh, and did anyone see Freddy Garcia's 7 K, no runs outing the other night?

Okay, I'm now going to take the opportunity to field a question that was sent into me before the season:



Dear Freeman's Fantasy,



Someone has just offered me Marcus Giles, Edgar Renteria, and Josh Beckett for Jeff Kent, Miguel Tejada, and my extra 3B Dmitri Young. Should I bite?

Gooch



Well, I e-mailed Gooch back to check out the rest of his team, and it turns out the kid has Bagwell, Morgan Ensberg, Reggie Sanders, Luis Gonzalez, and Jose Guillen -- all guys with likely 30+ homerun potentials. Oh yeah, plus Bonds. So it looks like he can afford to lose the HR differential of Kent and Tejada. But what Gooch doesn't have is steals, and Giles and Renteria would bring those on. On the other hand, Giles is relatively unproven, and though Kent and Tejada both had off seasons last year, let's remember that they also have both won MVP awards in the past three years. Good second-halves last year suggest that Jeff and Miguel could return to superstar form.

The X-factor is Beckett, who is unproven but highly-touted based upon his post-season performance in 2003. Injuries have hampered him during the regular season, but he has potential for stardom. His ERA has always been pretty low, and I like his K/BB ratio.

What this trade comes down to is that Gooch would be getting the stats that he needs -- steals and batting average -- while taking a loss in power, which Gooch has. Even though Kent and Tejada may be more valuable than Giles and Renteria overall, they are not more valuable for Gooch's team. Plus, he's getting a potentially top starter for a bench player in Young. I say: go for it. A lot of guys won't give up good players because they are "too valuable," but if they are not the most valuable for you team, you don't need 'em.



Okay, that's all for now. Write in your fantasy questions to elliot.freeman@tufts.edu. Happy baseball season.