It all comes down to this weekend, a precarious three-game series between the Jumbos (16-11, 5-4 NESCAC-East) and the Bates Bobcats (11-15, 4-5 East) starting today in Lewiston, Maine. There are two possible outcomes for Tufts: a sweep of the series will get the Jumbos their fourth consecutive spot in next Friday's four-team NESCAC Tournament. A single loss will lead to and an early trip to the showers without a postseason slot.
The key for Tufts is to treat the series like any other, according to senior co-captain Randy Newsom (5-1, 3.78 ERA), and avoid the trap of thinking about NESCACs.
"The worst thing we can do is to treat it as different," Newsom said. "Obviously the stakes are a little higher, but it's the same as any league series. [Bates'] record is deceiving. They'll be tough games all the way through, and if we play the way we're capable of we should be able to do it."
Trinity (26-6, 10-2 East) and Williams (26-7, 10-2 NESCAC-West) already hold berths in the tournament, with Amherst (11-14, 4-5 West) and Middlebury (11-13, 4-5 West) meeting this weekend to determine the second West team to join Williams in the postseason.
The Jumbos currently sit third in the East behind Bowdoin (21-11, 8-4 East), but the Polar Bears have closed out their 2004 divisional schedule and must await the Tufts-Bates result to see whether they will make the first NESCAC postseason appearance in school history. Should Tufts sweep Bates and tie Bowdoin with an 8-4 division record, the Jumbos would claim the second East berth behind Trinity on the strength of its 2-1 head-to-head record with Bowdoin this spring.
Riding the momentum of a four-game win streak, Tufts sends northward a team on an offensive tear. The Jumbos are currently third in the NESCAC with a .320 team average, and all but one of the lineup's regulars are batting over .300.
"We need timely hitting. When we have the opportunity to score, like with a runner on third and two outs, we've got to come through," sophomore right fielder Matt Clement said. "We struggled earlier in season with that, but the younger players are coming through and we're doing a better job of it."
Bates is hitting marginally lower as a club at .305, but has been carried offensively by some big bats, with five hitters slugging over .500 with at least three homers. Junior catcher/DH Charlie Engasser leads the team with a .382 average and 26 RBI, while his five homeruns are second to senior quad-captain Rob Maguire's seven.
"One of the big battles is our pitching versus their hitting," Newsom said. "They've got lots of guys who can hit, the three M's [seniors Maguire, Drew McKenna and Nate Maxwell] have been there four years and have done well."
But Bates -- like Colby, Tufts' victim last weekend in a three-game demolition -- has been let down by its pitching, which enters the weekend seventh in the conference. The team has a 6.61 team ERA and walked 109 batters in just 182.1 innings of work. Tufts, by contrast, has allowed just 55 free passes in 210 innings -- a potentially big factor in the series.
"We have to keep the ball down and not give them anything pitching-wise or on defense," Newsom said. "We can be a very good pitching team. [Offensively] if we can get past their starters and into their bullpen, that's where we can really get to them."
Nevertheless, the biggest edge in the series for either team could come not at the plate or on the mound, but with who crumbles first under pressure.
Bates, unlike Tufts, has nothing to lose in the series due to its official elimination from playoff contention last weekend to Bowdoin. Bates took one of three from Bowdoin, however, and will be looking to play spoiler against Tufts too.
"They took one from Bowdoin and swept Colby, so they're definitely a good team," Clement said. "We've gotta be on our 'A' game to beat them."
According to Bobcat senior pitcher Ben Megrian, being out of the race won't stop Bates from seeking scalps.
"I'm no psychology major, but sure, those guys will certainly be playing under more pressure than we will," Megrian said. "But when it comes down to it, its still baseball -- pitching hitting and defense. I don't think the psychological aspects of the game will matter much. They're a strong ball club who wants to get into the post season and we're hungry to beat them for the first time in a while."
Bates last beat Tufts in 1991, with the Jumbos running up a 23-0 record against the Bobcats since then. The series also marks the first time since 1999 that the teams will play in Lewiston.
"We have to play our best baseball to take this series," Megrian said. "Our strength this year has been our hitting. We have to continue to get quality starts out of pitchers, which we've had, and cut down on errors that have hurt us lately. If we play flawless defense and hit the ball like we can, I think we'd have a good chance at taking this series."
But Tufts is taking Bates' carefree attitude in stride, instead focusing on using the high stakes to motivate the team to play hard and not allow the Bobcats to get comfortable at any stage during the series.
"The challenge is making sure we really jump out on top. Every game we have to work hard to make sure we're playing hard right away," Newsom said. "It's a great test. I don't think it could have worked out better actually, because it will be the same type of situation that we'll be in next week [if we win], only more intense."
