As you, the Class of 2008, gear up for your first college run, the NL playoff race is heating up too. But much like college, a quick peek at the National League standings reveals everything is not always as you expect. Not that that's necessarily a bad thing.
As March and spring training rolled around, most experts were treating Roger Clemens' arrival to the Houston Astros like the Second Coming of the Messiah. With fellow Yankee-snubber Andy Pettitte in tow, the pair was expected to lead the 'Stros to the NL Central title, battling it out with the Chicago Cubs and their 1-2-3 punch of Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Greg Maddux (with Carlos Zambrano and Matt "Chin Thing" Clement thrown in for good measure).
But nobody predicted the Central race we're seeing at the moment.
The St. Louis Cardinals have all but clinched the division, leaving the Cubs and injury-riddled Astros in their wake. Thanks to "Phat" Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and their band of merry sluggers, the Redbirds have beaten up on their division, going 48-28 within the Central, all without any pitching.
Come on. If you predicted a rotation that includes Jason Marquis, Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan - yes that Jeff Suppan - would be pitching for a division leader, you're likely just trying to make yourself feel good. And Matt Morris is having a bad year to boot. But despite the Cards' offensive prowess, the starting pitching likely won't be strong enough to take them deep into the playoffs, even with the possible major league return of control expert Rick Ankiel. Ouch.
But down in oil country, while Clemens has lived up to - and surpassed - expectations, including going undefeated in his first 12 starts, Pettitte and Wade Miller have spent considerable time on the DL, chipping in just 13 wins combined. The value of late-June rental player Carlos Beltran is also debatable. While Beltran is enjoying a career year offensively and has solidified the outfield for wild card-contending Houston, the team gave up one of the game's better setup men/closers in the process - Octavio Dotel. Good pitching wins ballgames...
The Cubs are also in the middle of the wild card battle with...wait for it...the San Diego Padres? Yes, led by Mark Loretta and surfie Khalil Greene, the guys in the nauseating sandy threads are neck and neck with the Windy City Northsiders. But chances are the Cubbies will win due to depth. Sure, Jake Peavy, the aging David Wells, and Brian Lawrence are solid starters for San Diego and both the bullpen and lineup have generally been strong. But you can't ignore a Prior-Wood-Maddux punch, coupled with Chicago's superior offense.
But the Padres could make a late run at the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, who remain strong despite a somewhat mysterious trade deadline shakeup by GM Paul DePodesta. 3B Adrian Beltre is having an MVP-caliber season, almost doubling his career-high in homers (23 last year, 42 through Monday). But again with the setup man question: Why trade Eric Gagne's setup guarantee in Guillermo Mota?
Balco Barry's San Francisco Giants also remain in the playoff hunt, sitting right on the pace with the Cubs and Padres. The Giants could fade quickly with a one-man rotation named Jason Schmidt and a disastrous bullpen, however.
Many heralded 2004 as the year of the Philadelphia Phillies and the demise of the Atlanta Braves. While it certainly looked that way to begin - where, oh where have the Jones boys gone? - the Phillies have been melting quicker than Whiz on a cheese steak, thanks in part to the loss of Pat "The Bat" Burrell, Billy Wagner's flame-throwing left arm, and an underachieving bullpen. Meanwhile Atlanta's sleepy offense has turned a corner, led by a healthy J.D. Drew - knock on wood.
It's fitting to end with a Nomah saga update, as it contains an important lesson for all contending clubs. Garciaparra left the Hub in a "fragile do not drop" package to become a Cub and promptly - Hallelujah, Mr. Lucchino - was healthy again. But the poorly handled "he said, he said" battle launched from both sides appears to be continuing, this time in Chicago. As much as we all love Nomar, the Cubs must be careful his Achilles-wrist-ego injury does not become a clubhouse distraction, lest the rest of the team seeks out the trainer for a bulk dose of Advil. Yes, Nomar plays hard every time he steps between the lines, but it's stretch time now, and the focus must be on the team, not the individual.
All in all, it should be an interesting September. While the Braves in the East and Cardinals in the Central are a virtual lock, the Dodgers, Padres and Giants could be in for a tough time in the West, with the Cubbies and Astros joining the mix in the hunt for the wild card. Stay tuned.
