The comparison between the Iraq and Vietnam Wars is a contentious and politically loaded one, and whether such a comparison is useful and relevant or baseless and inapplicable often seems to depend on the party or politician speaking.
One parallel between the two conflicts, however, is beyond partisan reproof: both the Vietnam War and the war in Iraq have prompted strong responses in public opinion. According to a Gallup poll conducted over the weekend, 42 percent of Americans now view the war in Iraq as a "mistake," a figure that echoes the 40 percent of Americans who viewed the Vietnam War as a "mistake" in a 1967 Gallup poll.
"Both times have generated an oppositional movement of significance, though the visibility [now] is not as pronounced as it was during the Vietnam period," said sociology Professor Paul Joseph, the director of Tufts' Peace and Justice Studies Department. "But in the end of August outside the Republican National Convention, you had more people - estimates vary, but somewhere between 300,000 to 500,000 - in a demonstration than ever existed during any one single demonstration against the Vietnam War."
According to Tufts political science Professor Richard Eichenberg, the war in Iraq, like the Vietnam War, has negatively affected the president's approval ratings.
"The war is the reason the president's approval rating is at 50 percent rather than 60 percent," said Eichenberg, who explored the issue with Richard Stoll, a political science professor at Rice University in a July 2004 study published by the Foreign Policy Centre.
According to Eichenberg, a parallel can be drawn between President Richard Nixon's 1969 announcement of "Vietnam-ization" (the gradual withdrawal of American troops from Vietnam) and President George W. Bush's June announcement of the transition of power in Iraq, which Eichenberg and Stoll term "Iraqification."
"In terms of a bounce or rally like Nixon's poll numbers received [after Vietnamization], Bush did not get that," Eichenberg said. "Nixon got a 10 to 12 point bump; Bush's approval rating in June and July stayed about the same, at an average of 47 percent."
Eichenberg believes, though, that Bush profited from the handover in ways more difficult to quantify. "I think he did benefit in that, combined with other factors, the handover did lead the media to pay less attention to Iraq," Eichenberg said. "So the public's appreciation of casualty accumulation lessened, even though there were still 60 American deaths per month in June, July, August."
Eichenberg's assertion - that the announcement of Iraqification and the handover distracted the media and the public from the actual situation on the ground in Iraq and thereby boosted Bush - is backed up by numbers.
"People did stop paying attention to Iraq," he said. "There are polls asking, 'Hey, folks, what have you been paying attention to on the news, in the papers?' and there was a clear drop in attention to Iraq [after the handover]."
Eichenberg finds another parallel in patterns of Vietnam-era and current public support: support for each war drops relatively linearly as casualties accumulate. For that reason, he expected Bush's approval rating to decline, especially after Sept. 7, when the U.S. troop casualty toll reached 1,000, "wrenching attention back to Iraq."
That, Eichenberg says, didn't happen. In fact, Bush's approval rating began to "edge up" again. "During the RNC and after that, President Bush did a fantastic job redefining Iraq as part of the war against terrorism, rather than anything else," Eichenberg said. "He called dramatic attention to 9/11, sending the message that we're in Iraq because of 9/11. He convinced people of that, and that's why the continuing casualties didn't drop his approval even further."
While Bush gained ground in August and September, Kerry lost it. According to Stoll, the Swift Boat Veterans' allegations against Kerry, though contradicted by the official Navy record, have likely damaged Kerry's standing in the polls. "Our analysis just looked at Bush, but I think most would argue that those ads have hurt Kerry," Stoll said.
Eichenberg attributes the erosion in Kerry's support throughout August to factors other than the Swift Boat Veterans' ads, but also involving Vietnam. "Republicans - partly the Swift Boat people, even Cheney and Bush themselves - literally took apart the positives Kerry conveyed at the DNC: Vietnam veteran, war hero, strong on security," he said. "They went after him very, very hard, taunting him, and Kerry didn't do a very good job of responding."
The takedown of Kerry's Vietnam-hero persona, however, does not necessarily spell his loss at the polls. "If things continue to go this badly in Iraq - over 60 American soldiers have already died this month, people have been gruesomely beheaded - and he can convince people that Iraq did not have to do with the war on terror, Kerry can turn it around," Eichenberg said.
Eichenberg added that public opinion regarding "the famous 'bogged down' question" (Do you think we are bogged down in Iraq like we were bogged down in Vietnam?) has been running about 50-50 in the polls.
Despite the comparison implied by that question, there are concrete differences between the two conflicts, Stoll says - one of which involves the number of U.S. troops casualties.
"It's about 18 months since the start of the war, and the U.S. has suffered a bit over 1,000 deaths," Stoll said. "If we start the U.S. Vietnam involvement with the Gulf of Tonkin, 18 months later the U.S. had suffered almost 1,700 deaths."
That, Stoll said, was only the beginning. "After another 12 months of involvement in Vietnam, the American death total was about 6,600," he said. "I don't know if we [can] accurately predict the next 12 months in Iraq, but I find it very hard to believe that the American death total in Iraq over the next 12 months will be anything close to the Vietnam total."
