On Bill Clinton's appearance with John Kerry in Philadelphia:
<$>Dean Jim Glaser<$> "I think it brings a little bit of attention to the campaign and maybe allows Kerry to point to some favorable Democratic administration [vs.] Republican administration comparison, like the deficit and state of the economy and things like that. Will it change the minds of undecided voters, the small number in whose hands this election lies? Maybe, but probably not."
Professor Jeffrey Berry<$> "There will be no significant effect. I think the Democrats are pretty well mobilized and it was a nice photo op, it got a big crowd in Philadelphia. Generally this election is about President Bush, less so about John Kerry, and even less so about former President Clinton."
On the missing cache of high explosives recently discovered in Iraq:
<$>Dean Jim Glaser<$> "I don't think it helps Bush at all, he's in a very defensive stance with regards to this issue. The Bush administration is trying to turn it into an offensive angle but when you say my opponent is relying on headlines and he doesn't know the facts, that is a very defensive response to a situation that is politically damaging to him. Whether or not the weapons were moved before the troops moved in can only be perceived as a problem for the Bush administration. Whatever the reality, the perception is that it happened, and it shouldn't have and that it's his fault."
Professor Jeffrey Berry<$> "It is probably not going to have any effect. I think people voting on the basis of the Iraq war made up their minds a long time ago. It's really an opportunity for Kerry to put some dents in the president's armor as a strong knowledgeable leader, as the Democrats all along have looked for opportunities to shrink Bush's lead as a stronger leader than Kerry. I wouldn't expect it to have any major impact though, it's not a big enough story and it's complicated as well as ambiguous."
On the possibility of the Bush administration producing Osama bin Laden at the last minute:
<$>Dean Jim Glaser<$> "In the past there have been October and November surprises -- does that possibility lurk out there? Sure. Do I expect it to happen? We're getting pretty close to the election, it better happen quick."
Professor Jeffrey Berry<$> "If [the Bush administration] had the opportunity to find Osama they wouldn't have waited that long, it's too risky ... I would think what I would be more concerned about is some kind of spectacular bombing in Iraq because some insurgents feel this might be able to influence our election the way insurgents in Spain affected elections there."<$>
Berry - Whatever the Bush administration had is out there already, but world events are also unpredictable, so
________
"I'm not sure [the media] will be more careful [about releasing a result projection] because the competitive pressures are such that one network's not going to want to be left too far behind. If something is really close they'll probably be a little bit more cautious but most of the states aren't going to be close, so as they call each state the momentum will build up to finish the evening off and declare the winner. These things are built on statistical models and once they come in they're going to announce it."
"Yes, [the media] will be more careful this time. Will [a projection] take a long time, yes, probably it will take longer as a result [of the 2000 election]. But you know, to be honest with you I think that actually they projected correctly, Gore did win more votes in Florida than Bush won and I'm not even now talking about the recount of hanging chads. There were a large number of people who over voted (they voted once and then they voted for a write-in with Al Gore's name), and made errors and had their votes thrown out, and the exit polls didn't ask if people had over-voted. I just think it's kind of ironic that the projections of the networks were actually correct, and that's not a comment on the recount, it's a comment on the number of over-votes and problematic votes that would not have been counted even had Bush v. Gore come out differently."
I left my questions at the top in case you can think of a better way to work them into the responses, they're more specific this time so it took more inserting.
Effects of Clinton's campaigning with Kerry?
Kerry labeled the missing cache of 380 tons of explosives "one of the great blunders of Iraq" - what will be the effect of this? Mr Bush yesterday said Kerry was "denigrating the actions of soilders" - who is this helping or hurting, how are they responding?
Do you predict another extended election, do you think they'll be more careful before releasing names, and if so long do you think it will take for a result?
Missing absentee ballots in Broward County, Florida - any link to Jeb Bush?
Do you think there is any credibility to the rumors behind some kind of presidential team conspiracy to the affect of "finding Osama"?
