Jack Corrigan, adviser to John Kerry and a Somerville native,made predictions for the upcoming presidential election over lunchlast Friday with a group of students and faculty.
Corrigan said Kerry is in a stronger position than were recentDemocratic presidential losers Al Gore in 2000 or Dukakis in 1988.He said that Bill Clinton had a stronger hold in 1992 only becauseof Ross Perot's divisive effect on the conservative vote.
Corrigan insisted the election would be close and would not"break one way or another."
"Two and a half weeks from now, there will be a dead heat," hesaid. Election Day will end in a "very late night, a very closeresult."
Corrigan, who managed Gore's legal strategy during the 2000recount debacle, said he and the Democratic Party are "trying toprevent another Florida."
The Democrats have sent teams of litigators to the top fourstates in which a recount is likely to occur, and ballots are beingreviewed for possible complications.
But Corrigan added that the "mathematical probability is verysmall for the votes being tied."
Citizens' enthusiasm and willingness to get involved in thisyear's election is much greater than anytime in the recent past,Corrigan said. He compared the 2004 election to the hooplasurrounding Robert Kennedy's 1968 campaign, but said the emergenceof the Internet has been an important factor.
Corrigan cited the record $3.7 million donated to the DemocraticNational Committee in one day via the Internet. "Bush attacks usand people start getting on the Internet and giving us money," hesaid.
The high level of citizen involvement is "healthy for thesystem, very different than anything I've seen," Corrigan said.
In battleground states, there are currently almost 1,000 paidstaff members registering voters, which has resulted in "Twomillion people in Florida registered now who weren't registered in2000," he said.
"The change in registration has changed the balance, [and] it'snot going to be the same map," he said. But new registrations donot necessarily mean gains for Kerry since "the Republicans aredoing the same thing."
He also refuted the common perception that presidentialelections are generally "thought to be extremely well managed bysmart people [and] efficiently run." In most cases, elections are"the opposite of what anybody could hope for in any dimension."
In past elections, Corrigan said there have been problems withvoters not getting enough information about presidentialcandidates. "Resources [should be] devoted to educating votersabout what is going on," he said, but added that it is difficultfor a presidential campaign to get information to voters in allstates.
"If you don't live in a battleground state, you have to doresearch on your own," he said. Since Kerry "locked up thenomination early, he was able to use time to raise enormous amountsof money and used [it] to teach people about himself inbattleground states," Corrigan said.
He also analyzed the recent debates, noting that this year therewas "greater emphasis on energizing and nailing down the base."
He said "Kerry has built his favorable image in the debates,"whereas "Bush is clearly trying to speak to his base," citingBush's "religious soliloquy" during one of them.
Corrigan was introduced by Tom Birmingham, former president ofthe Massachusetts Senate.
The "Brown Bag Lunch" discussion was the first in a seriesfeaturing top Democrats related to the Kerry campaign and wassponsored by University College.
