Next season, the Pittsburg Pirates aren't going to make the playoffs. Neither will the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, the Toronto Blue Jays or the Milwaukee Brewers.
No matter what they do this off-season, none of those teams can possibly win the 90-95 games necessary to earn a spot in 2005 postseason play.
Sure, some in their fan bases might harbor ridiculous notions, but fan bases can be delusional. I mean, Red Sox fans have been predicting that "this is the year" for eight decades ... oh, never mind. We won.
These teams are the small market bottom feeders of Major League Baseball. Their four 2004 payrolls combined to total $138 million. Meanwhile, the Red Sox payroll this season stood at about $125 million, and the Yankees dished out nearly $185 million to round out the ALCS.
It's time for Major League Baseball to start seriously considering a hard salary cap. Yeah, yeah, luxury tax. But let's be serious, the luxury tax in baseball is like the graduated income tax. If you're rich, you're rich.
Paying an additional $20 million in fines for going over the "cap" isn't that much of a problem when your team's payroll is north of $180 million. It hasn't slowed teams like the Mets either ... oh wait, no, that's Mo Vaughn's salary, not a league-imposed penalty.
Baseball is turning into college football. There are a few powerhouses, and when they play each other, it's fun. But most of the time, they play games in which the only question is how much they'll win by.
That's not to say that baseball isn't making strides. The Marlins winning two years ago was quite impressive. The Padres almost making the playoffs, and the Twins and the A's being consistently competitive, is good. But it's not enough.
Look at the NFL or the NBA. Well, post Artest-mania Raw, maybe you shouldn't look at the NBA. But let's look at the NFL.
The NFL is what every league aspires to be. Yeah, this storyline might be getting tired, but it's true. The league is intensely competitive, extremely profitable and fun to watch.
If some football team is miserable in a given year (Dolphins, 49ers), the fault lies solely with management and players, not with a lack of funds to compete. This year's scrubs could very well be next year's playoff contenders. Indeed, those two teams were powerhouses in the 80's and will be again someday.
Not so in baseball. Can you honestly envision a scenario in which the Devil Rays win more than, say, 85 games?
Look at their roster. There are AAA teams that are probably just as good. Don't get me wrong, I think the Devil Rays have some great players. Scott Kazmir is going to be really good, as is Dewon Brazelton and Carl Crawford. And in a few years, all of them are going to be traded to competitive teams in return for a bunch of prospects.
Baseball needs a hard salary cap. Understand that I'm a Red Sox fan, one of the beneficiaries of the lopsided financial situation in baseball. I'm really saying this as a baseball fan.
It would be good for baseball if success didn't correlate so closely with payroll. Is it fun that half of all baseball stadiums are deserted by mid-season? What does it say that the Yankees should never lose a game to the Devil Rays, or that a Red Sox loss to the Orioles is a cause for great embarrassment?
Imagine if every stadium in baseball was packed every night. Imagine if a Red Sox-Royals game was actually fair. Imagine if no one could offer a player a $200 million deal. Wouldn't that be fun?
That's not to say that every team would magically start winning games. The Mets and Phillies both spent about $100 million this season to miss the playoffs. In fact, that leads me to another point.
Just as defense wins championships in football, pitching wins championships in baseball. I can't quite understand how teams haven't realized that.
Remember last off-season when the Orioles went out and signed Javy Lopez, Raphiel Palmiero and Miguel Tejada in an effort to be competitive? Didn't it seem as if they were actually worse this year, even after spending all that money?
I don't understand what general managers think in those situations. "I know! Let's overpay aging power hitters and go into debt! That's how we're gonna get competitive again!"
When are teams going to learn that the addition of one slugger isn't going to turn the tide? The Tigers tried it with Juan Gone. The Mets tried it with ... well just about everyone who was over the hill (Vaughn, Alomar, Floyd). The Rangers tried it with A-Rod.
The Mets still haven't learned their lesson. They're letting Al Leiter leave while going after Sammy Sosa. "Well, his average and homers have gone down every year, he's in his 30's, is an injury risk ... let's get him!" If I were a Mets fan, I would probably lock myself inside, get ten cats and live off of baby food.
Did you notice that the Red Sox signed Manny and couldn't win it all until they got Schilling? Did you see how overmatched the Cardinals were, even with that lineup? Was anyone paying attention? Did you notice that the Yankees lost Clemens and Pettitte and replaced them with A-Rod and Sheffield and got worse?
Watch. The Indians are going to be good because they have pitching, while the Royals are going to be God-awful. Maybe teams will figure this out.
Mismanagement is a different issue, but not as damaging to the sport as a whole. Mismanaged teams recover eventually. Small market teams usually cannot- without the salary cap.
Will the hard salary cap happen? Probably not. But I haven't given up hope yet. Maybe one glorious day, ten or fifteen years from now, Tampa Bay will host a playoff game. Until then, it looks like the Red Sox and Yankees are going to meet in the ALCS every single year.
Maybe I should stop complaining.
