A politically polarized nation will be biting its nails as elections officials tabulate votes in what Tufts professors predict will be a long night- which may not end with a clear winner.
"It will be very close regardless of who wins" the 44th Presidency of the United States, Assistant Professor of Political Science Deborah Schildkraut said.
Television viewers watching the breakdown of red and blue states will keep their eyes on the pivotal swing states that will decide the election.
The swing states for which the results are the most uncertain are Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and New Mexico, according to The New York Times. These states represent 86 crucial electoral votes.
"Chances are that one or two of the so-called swing states will end up being pivotal," Political Science Professor Kent Portney said. "I'm putting my money on Ohio - it's a diverse state, large enough and with much higher than usual turnout such that the vote counting will be slower than in other places."
Certain traditional swing states, such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are leaning towards Kerry, while others, including Missouri, Arizona and West Virginia, are leaning towards Bush, according to the Times.
Winning the presidency requires securing 270 electoral votes. The current breakdown of votes gives Kerry 227 votes and Bush 225, with the 86 votes still up in the air.
Shildkraut said fervor is running high in these battleground states. "In swing states the amount of activity is just off the charts - people are bombarded by commercials and door-to-door, face-to-face activity."
Political Science Professor Jim Glaser said, "I have not seen such intensity in my adult life. I've never known so many people working on a campaign, volunteering for a campaign. People on both sides feel like there is a great amount at stake."
But despite the closeness of the race, "There will likely be someone who will win the clear majority," Schildkraut said.
Glaser agreed, noting that "we will have an outcome - there may be issues surrounding the integrity of [the outcome] ... but I think it will be less painful this time [than in 2000]."
Portney said he would bet on a Bush victory based on the electoral vote, adding that "there is still the possibility, as in 2000, that the Democrat can win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote and the election," he said.
But Tufts professors warn of the possibility of another electoral quagmire reminiscent of the notorious 2000 election recount.
Glaser said a premature declaration of a winner from the media could only exacerbate an already potentially confusing and chaotic election night. "The media has to be careful about making preliminary judgments, as it did for Al Gore and President Bush in 2000," he said.
Even if one candidate wins a clear electoral majority, Schildkraut predicts "lawsuits and protests ... there might be pressure on the person who doesn't get the majority to fight whatever the outcome is," she said.
Both candidates are attempting to work within the U.S. voting system, Schildkraut said. "The 2000 election exposed so many weak points in the [electoral] system that could be exploited by each side. Each side is trying to figure out how to exploit this, and trying to defend against the other side's expectations and attacks," she said.
In some swing states, Goldman said, extremely close results could lead to indecisive deadlock, necessitating another appeal to the Supreme Court, as with Florida in 2000.
Due to the conservative bent of the justices currently sitting on the Court, such an outcome would undoubtedly favor a Republican victory, Goldman said.
And pollsters' predictions could have little predictive value on Election Day, since voter turnout is often affected by weather and other uncontrollable variables.
"Turnout nationally will be relatively high, perhaps around 55 percent, although I think turnout in Florida, a swing state, will probably be lower than average, primarily because of the large numbers of prospective voters who are still feeling the effects of the hurricanes," Portney said.
