According to a recent joint study conducted by Tufts and Boston University (BU) researchers, it is only a matter of time before unhealthy impacts of climate change on Boston's infrastructure become apparent.
Dr. Paul Kirshen, Tufts research professor in the departments of civil and environmental engineering, served as the Project Manager, and said that researchers worked for five years to complete the study.
"From 1999-2004 we looked at how climate changes will affect infrastructure," Kirshen said. "We looked mostly at the effects on service, public health and energy."
The conclusions were published in a report entitled "Climate's Long-term Impacts on Metro Boston (CLIMB)," he said, and were presented to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in October.
Kirshen explained that by using advanced computer modeling systems, researchers created multiple scenarios of possible future environmental changes, and how the city's infrastructure would need to be altered to function in spite of the impacts of those changes.
One major aspect of the study was metropolitan drainage systems. With the continued melting of the polar ice caps, Boston should expect "more coastal flooding after storms in the next few decades," Kirshen said.
"There will be a far greater flooding area around the Charles River basin, as well as an extended area from the North End to South Boston," he said.
The Charles River basin area is also the site of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) campus.
Kirshen said that "we already get major storm surges as it is. Imagine the added destruction that just three feet of water elevation would cause."
Increases in water levels will put a possibly unbearable strain on existing drainage systems in place around Boston.
"We're going to have to change our drainage standards, reservoirs, and health warning systems, because an increase in water level will almost certainly spell an increase in diseases," he said.
Even slight changes in temperature will affect current wastewater systems in the city, Kirshen said, as these systems are very sensitive to climate changes.
Though pessimistic about how developing countries around the world will fare as a result of climate change, Kirshen said he believes that it is not too late for Boston to prepare itself for the impacts of climate change.
"The significant part of this study is that taking action earlier will result in [preventing] a lot of damage in the next decade or so," he said. "We'll be able to buy our way out of this [if the city acts quickly]."
Kirshen said he thinks that if Boston upgrades its infrastructure early enough, the city could save up to a half to two-thirds of the total cost of damage caused by climate change.
"I think most of the industrialized world will be able to work through climate changes," he added. "People will adapt to changes in climate."
David Gute, associate civil and environmental engineering professor, a researcher for CLIMB, said that the importance of this study was in "its attempt to make the impact of global change real to local policy makers and appointed and elected officials."
CLIMB was one of the few studies that included "a strong community partner in the research who was very interested in the impact on local cities and towns," Gute said.
The Metropolitan Area Planning Council was one such partner. The Council "helped shape the questions that were researched, and were a partner that helped ensure the results were disseminated back to the local policy makers," Gute said.
These sorts of strong community relations are not always present in academic research studies, Gute said.
In addition to helping to shed light on how Boston will react to future climate changes, CLIMB has helped researchers understand how other regions of the world will react. According to Kirshen, they may not be as lucky as Boston.
Kirshen said he predicts that developing countries will not be able to adapt to climate changes as easily as U.S. cities, and will therefore suffer the brunt of "our self-indulgent lifestyle."
"In the developing world, in the poorest [countries], such as [in] West Africa, the people are very tied to agriculture, which, in turn, is closely tied to climate," Kirshen said.
The developed world's emissions of green house gases, which cause an increase in world temperature, must be curbed if the effects of climate change are to be minimalized, Kirshen explained.
"At this point, things are only going to get worse," he said. "The best we can do right now is control green house gas emissions, which will at least slow the rate of climate change."
The eleven-person research team received a grant from the EPA, and their work was meant to be an academic research study.
According to Kirshen, researchers in many fields including economists, urban experts, hydrologists and geotechnical engineers were consulted in compiling the study's conclusions.
The media, including the Boston Globe, have covered the study's results, which, according to Kirshen, was a boon for this sort of research.
"Hopefully public attention to these issues will allow similar studies to focus on other cities," he said.
"While most studies focus on climate change's impacts on agricultural areas, it's important not to forget that the world is urbanizing quickly," he said. Kirshen explained that, in a few decades, the majority of people on earth will be living in cities, rather than in rural areas. This adds a new importance to the possible effects that climate change will have on urban centers.
Kirshen attributed the study's success in part to Tufts' research structure.
"Tufts was one of the few institutions where [a project of this sort] could be carried out, based on the skills in interdisciplinary research," he said.
