The first step in predicting who will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night may be a bit of trivia.
Question: In what way are the NFL and just about any NESCAC sport strikingly similar? Answer: The talent's pretty evenly distributed around both leagues. No team is that much better than any other, which means the "any given Sunday" rule is always in effect.
So which teams win, in either league? Well, on second thought, maybe Williams is that much more talented in the NESCAC. But what about the NFL?
Simply enough, the team that executes best always wins. The team that does the little things right, and doesn't make mistakes. The team that doesn't turn the ball over, commit false starts and roughing penalties, always gets at least a shoulder on a blitzer.
On the team that executes, you never see a ball go off a wide receiver's fingers and into the hands of a pleasantly surprised safety. No one ever stays in bounds after a catch during the two minute drill. No one ever argues on the sideline, and injuries don't seem to matter, since the backup will execute just as well.
Only one team in the Super Bowl can make that claim. Has everyone figured out who we're talking about yet? How about one last hint: the kicker never misses either. OK, so the suspense probably left this rant several paragraphs ago, but the point is clear. The New England Patriots are the best executing team in the NFL by a good margin. By no means are they the most talented team. In fact, when Terrell Owens is healthy, the Philadelphia Eagles themselves can make a good stake to that claim.
But in the Super Bowl, talent goes out the window. Execution is all that matters, and in that category, Philadelphia could field a fleet of Terrell Owens's running at 110-percent and still not have a chance.
That's the big, overarching reason why the Pats will win Super Bowl XXXIX. They simply execute better in all three phases of the game.
This will be expressed most clearly in the turnover battle. As in all Super Bowls, the team that turns the ball over less stands a much better chance of winning, and the only way the Eagles stand a prayer's chance of winning is if they can force Brady to make poor throws from the pocket and disrupt the veteran's rhythm enough to pick off a ball or two.
Then there's the more specific reason that the Pats will win. The Eagles won't be able to score. Amidst all the T.O. nonsense, everyone seems to have lost sight of the fact that the Eagles' offense plays right into the hands of Romeo Crennel and the New England defense.
The Eagles run a ball control, West Coast style offense, characterized by short, creative passes punctuated by a vertical shot to Owens, or now Greg Lewis, the Eagles' replacement deep threat.
With the vertical game disabled by Owens's compromised health and a strong Pats pass rush (with or without Richard Seymour, the Pats can put pressure on McNabb, but Seymour will be playing which can only help), McNabb will have no choice but playing into the teeth of the Patriots defense: the linebacker corps. Bruschi, McGinest, Vrabel and co. comprise the most efficient and adaptable group of linebackers in recent NFL history, and with two weeks for Belichick and Crennel to scheme, they'll be ready to create havoc.
Offensively, the Pats will again attempt to control the clock, as they did against the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers, but may have a harder time doing so against an aggressive Philadelphia defense.
Still, aggressive is the buzzword in Jim Johnson's scheme and aggressive defenses either force big plays or let up big plays. With Jeremiah Trotter patrolling the middle with renewed vigor, the Pats will have a tougher time than usual running the ball, and the Eagles secondary is as good as any. But the Pats should be able to eek out the 20 points they'll need to take this one.
Still, it's conceivable that the Eagles could do such a good job getting to Brady that they can keep the Pats at bay. This is the Birdies' best chance at winning. Keep the game low scoring and play their game - aggressive, blitzing from all angles, turnover inducing madman defense.
If the Eagles can accomplish that, and most crucially, win the special teams battle by a decided margin, they can win. If not, they don't stand a chance.
Before "Inside the NFL" makes its final prediction of the 2004-05 campaign, let it be noted that all 12 playoff teams were correctly prognosticated in Week 10. Keeping that traditional accuracy in mind, here's the pick: Pats control the clock for almost 40 minutes. Eagles turn the ball over three times, Pats only once. Troy Brown has an interception on defense and touchdown on offense and wins the MVP trophy. Final Score: Pats 24, Eagles 13.
Does this mean New England finally gets another dynasty? Not yet, but the Pats will still have plenty of cap room ... stay tuned for next year.
