There are some new top dogs in women's basketball. As top-25 teams wrapped up their regular-season schedules this week, conferences all around the country have seen the torch passed and some new champions crowned.
In the Southeastern Conference, the Louisiana State Tigers capped their near-perfect season with a 76-52 win over Florida on Sunday, bringing a regular-season banner to Baton Rouge and ending the seven-year stranglehold of the Tennessee Lady Vols. In the Big East, Rutgers stole top honors from UConn as its victory over Villanova earned it the regular-season title and the top seed in the conference tournament, loosening the Huskies' six-year lock. UNC's defeat of Duke on Sunday, the Tar Heels nabbed the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament and the two teams will share the regular-season title after four straight for the Blue Devils.
And with only two weeks to go until Selection Sunday and the season all but finished, schools across the country will be holding their breath as the NCAA skims and sorts and selects the nation's 64 best. The field remains wide open, especially in the second and third seeds, with only a hair's breadth separating some of Div. I's best, and the flurry of conference tournaments in the coming week will be the last chance for teams to impress the committee.
The only team that seems a lock for a No. 1 bid is LSU, who has had just about as good a season as any team can ask for. Pokey Chatman just wrapped up her first season as head coach with an untouched 14-0 mark in arguably the most competitive league in college basketball. The Tigers have knocked off six top-20 teams en route to a formidable and well-deserved 27-1 record. With SEC Player of the Year Seimone Augustus, SEC Coach of the Year, and two First Team All-Conference selections, LSU will be hard to beat. Augustus and point guard Temeka Johnson, the SEC assists leader, have all the ingredients needed to take the Tigers all the way.
Looking past the Tigers, other hopefuls for the top seeds include Stanford, Ohio State, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Duke (although a win over the Tar Heels probably would have sealed the deal for the Blue Devils). All these teams boast postseason honors, standout playmakers, and impressive records, so what will make the difference when the selection committee goes to work is schedule strength and performance against top RPI (ratings percentage index) teams.
At 26-2, the Cardinal look to be a strong candidate, although their strength of schedule and mediocre 2-1 record against top-25 teams and their No. 8 RPI ranking may be enough to push them out of the coveted slot. And even with one more loss than the rest of the top ten, Tennessee has dropped only one game (at the hands of LSU) since December and the number of quality wins the Lady Vols have racked up may just propel them into a top seed in the Chattanooga bracket.
Looking a bit further down at the 5-12 range opens the options considerably more. While by the numbers, Rutgers' five losses on the season and No. 9 ranking puts the Scarlet Knights speculatively at a three-seed, they are definitely not out of striking distance of the top eight. They are still the only team to get the better of LSU - no easy task - and their Tuesday night win over UConn may be just enough to earn them a No. 2 bid. The Big East tournament, always a top choice for intense, exciting, and high-energy basketball, will be Rutgers' final chance to squeak out a second seed.
While on the men's side, Michigan State has fallen far (as has the Big Ten, for that matter) in recent years, the women's program is another story. Though ranked nationally at No. 7, the Lady Spartans could be a dark horse for a No. 1 bid. Wins on the road at then-No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 11 UConn, No. 13 Minnesota, and a season sweep of top-ranked conference rival Ohio State will make schedule strength the deciding factor when the selection committee goes to work. With scoring distributed well in the starting rotation (four players averaging in double figures and two more close behind), the Lady Spartans run a diverse and hard-to-stop offense, seen in their 71.9 points per game, just short of Ohio State and good for second in the Big Ten.
Look for all the regulars to fall somewhere in the middle of the pack, although specific seeds depends greatly on conference tournaments outcomes. Wins would be enough to propel Duke and Tennessee to a No. 1 bid, and the Big Ten tournament will break the regular-season tie between MSU and Ohio State, and will probably determine the top slot in the Philadelphia bracket. Probably even a loss in the SEC tournament won't bump LSU from the seed it deserves, and the Tigers can use the extra practice time for just that.
