"In Theo we trust." That was the phrase permeating from Yawkey Way the past three years. Although Theo Epstein was the youngest GM in history when he was appointed in November 2002, he quickly garnered the respect and trust of skeptical Boston Red Sox fans.
Theo was expected to compete for the World Series immediately along with bulking up the team's farm system and player development, which was among the worst in baseball. If making the playoffs three consecutive years, stocking the minors with young talent, and assembling the team that brought Boston its first championship in 86 years wasn't enough, then I don't know what is.
Although Theo cites "not being able to put my heart and soul" into the Sox job as his reason for leaving, there is evidence that he actually had a fallout with CEO Larry Lucchino. Lucchino failed to extend Theo's contract for a number of reasons. The biggest mistake was not taking care of this in spring training. How can the man who GM'ed the Sox to a World Series victory not be rewarded with an extension?
This was a slap in the face to Epstein, and the lack of an extension surely built tension in the front office. When negotiations finally started after the season, Lucchino offered a contract worth $750,000 annually - a raise over the $350,000 Epstein made previously, but still far below Theo's demands. As a barometer of how disrespectful this offer was, look at the 2005 salary of Tampa Bay's GM Chuck Lamar: $800,000. No economical argument can be made for such a paltry salary. Lucchino must have had an insecurity issue because the student had exceeded the mentor; Theo was the sabermetric mastermind who built a dynasty in Boston. It seems strange that Lucchino is the one with a guaranteed contract until 2011.
We know that Epstein lured some big name free agents like Schilling, Foulke and Renteria, along with retaining Jason Varitek and adding Orlando Cabrera to the championship team. What Theo did so well was adding veteran mid-level players to create the core of the Red Sox. David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar and Todd Walker were plucked from obscurity to form a championship caliber team each year. Above are the marginal values of these mid-level players acquired by Epstein (using Wins Above Replacement Player and assuming a win is worth $2.4 million to MLB clubs).
Epstein made a science out of assembling line-ups with no easy outs and patient hitters who produced runs. As seen from the graph above, we see that Epstein netted $28.81 million in marginal value from just the contracts given to Ortiz, Millar, Mueller and Walker. If this job performance doesn't justify the need for the CEO to make every effort to extend the GM's contract, there must be an ideological or personal difference between the two. Winning the Series and getting value out of mid-level veterans is what Epstein is remembered for now, but the young talent in the minor league system will be what he is remembered for in the future.
Not only was Theo Epstein an excellent evaluator of Major League talent, he also drafted extremely well. The Red Sox will have a vast pipeline of talent in the coming years, and a lot of that can be attributed to Theo. Hundreds of thousands of dollars should not have been the tipping point between Theo and a contract. His value far exceeded his salary, and he should have been treated like a prince, not a goat.
