It is natural for every fad to eventually come to an end. I am reminded of the Tickle Me Elmo craze in the mid-'90s, in which upstanding, middle-aged people would rumble at Toys-R-Us in hopes of securing a Tickle Me Elmo doll for their kids. Bolivian politics, I believe, are experiencing a similar craze that is bound to be equally short lived.
Evo Morales, tie-less but sporting something similar to a suit, was sworn in as president of Bolivia on Jan. 22. He is the first president to be elected with a majority since democracy was restored in Bolivia in the 1980s. He has come to power with a strong and motivated base, and his party, Movimiento al Socialismo, has a majority in the lower house of Congress.
Nevertheless, I humbly predict that his mandate will end prematurely and that he will leave office with little accomplished. Morales is about to begin a crash-course in pragmatism and international relations, one that was not offered at the "university of life" that he routinely credits with his education.
Bolivia is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. In a global ranking of GDPs, it comes in at 101, ranked below countries such as North Korea, Cuba and Uganda. Bolivia relies heavily on external aid to keep its economy running, with over 10 percent of its meager GDP coming from United States loans or US-dominated international funds. Loans such as these are tied to a series of requirements, mostly demanding the liberalization of the economy and (in Bolivia's case) coca eradication.
Morales, despite his recently drummed-down rhetoric, was able to muster this impressive majority as a result of promises of nationalization, anti-Americanism and social equality. But the methods he has advocated may conflict with his goals. For example, a preferential trade agreement with the US is set to expire at the end of this year. This deal has helped boost factory jobs in Bolivia, a key process in diversifying the economy and steering it away from volatile goods, such as soy, and potentially illegal ones, such as coca.
As part of his move against "neo-colonialism," Morales has been promising that he will refuse any US aid if it comes with any sort of coca eradication requirements. Who will blink first, those trying to limit the supply of coca or the former leader of a coca movement? In this game of chicken, I think the Bush administration is more likely to stick to its guns.
I could be wrong, though. Morales might be the new Lula, the liberal Brazilian who scared the markets when he was elected president but ended up being more pragmatic and conservative than his predecessor in many ways. In fact, Morales has included some interesting thinkers in his cabinet, and, even though they are all socialists, I refuse to write them off as ignorant.
Notably, some media sources have been circulating rumors about Morales' vice president, Alvaro Garc?a Linera, who symbolically wears ties and not colorful sweaters to state functions.
This leftist academic denies that there are any significant ideological differences between himself and the new president, though a few newspapers have reported that in private he advocates rapprochement with the United States and that he is not in love with Morales' public display of affection for Hugo Chavez. Of course, Alvaro, as he is known, denies these allegations.
It is hard to see the silver lining in this case. I fear for Bolivians and the future of the country. I am afraid of the negative impact that Morales' knee jerk decisions might have in other Latin American countries.
I hope that Morales is able to continue to lighten his rhetoric, particularly in regards to other national leaders. In the past he has called Ricardo Lagos of Chile a "liar," Alejandro Toledo of Peru "a failure" and Vicente Fox of Mexico a "lap dog."
I hope that he can maintain positive relations with European powers, not nationalize their energy holdings - and perhaps wear a suit when meeting with their respective monarchs. Most of all, though, I hope that Evo Morales is able to come to terms with President Bush, and support him in his quest to open up Latin American markets (and vice-versa).
I am afraid that if Morales does not inject a strong dose of realism into his foreign and economic policies, he will end up like Tickle Me Elmo: a quickly forgotten fad.
