Major League Baseball's off-season has been intriguing, and at some points, amusing. Contract lengths this off-season were driven up because a lot of teams had money to spend and holes to fill on their roster, but few free agents were available. The Marlins had a fire sale, the free agent pitching market skyrocketed and Toronto's General Manager (GM) J.P. Ricciardi went from stathead to meathead.
Paul Konerko will be staying in Chicago for $60 million over the next five years, while Johnny Damon fled to the Yankees' four year, $52 million offer. These offers were inflated in dollars due to both Rafael Furcal signing with the Dodgers at $13 million per year over three years and the lack of a high-quality free agent class.
Furcal's early signing set the market for positional players and showed that the free-agent market correction of two years ago is history. If Miguel Tejada were a free agent this off-season as opposed to signing in the depressed market of two years ago, he would probably be earning in the $15 to $17 million range, and Dodgers GM Ned Colletti would not have the shame of paying Furcal more than what the superior Tejada makes.
The Marlins organization has an unclear future as it tries to finance a new stadium that should have been built years ago. It is understandable that an expansion team like the Devil Rays is playing in a terrible stadium, but for a two-time World Series Championship team to still be playing in Dolphins Stadium is ludicrous.
The Marlins' objective this off-season was to slash payroll, and they did so by trading Carlos Delgado, Josh Beckett, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota. Additionally, they lost A.J. Burnett, Juan Encarnacion, and Alex Gonzalez to free agency.
The Marlins received a stockpile of young arms in these trades, along with Mike Jacobs, a first baseman from the Mets, and Hanley Ramirez, a shortstop from the Red Sox, both of whom could step onto the big-league roster by spring training. Miguel Cabrera is the only starting positional player returning to lead the now anemic offense. Expect the Marlins to score around 650 runs in 2006.
Due to revenue-sharing dollars and the XM Satellite deal (XM has extensive MLB coverage, including the broadcast of every game on radio), more teams had money to spend on a sub-par free agent class.
It seems as if there are flaws with every free-agent pitcher. A.J. Burnett has a history of injury, Billy Wagner is too old for a long-term contract, B.J. Ryan has only been a closer for a year-and-a-half and Kevin Millwood is inconsistent (aside from just not being that good - and if you want to make an opposing case by citing his AL ERA title, you should understand that ERA is volatile, has many variables outside of the pitcher's control, and is not the best indicator of a pitcher's skill. This ERA topic will appear in my next column).
The pitching market was set before any of the big names signed their deals. When Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry received $12-million contracts over three years and Kyle Farnsworth received $17 million over the same period, GMs around the league gasped while agent Scott Boras could not wipe the smirk off his face. Every future negotiation was then based on what these lesser players received, and the market snowballed out of control.
The Toronto Blue Jays made the biggest splash of all. The club and stadium were bought by Rogers Communications, and payroll was increased from $45 million to $70 million this year. Ricciardi signed Burnett to a five-year deal worth $55 million and Ryan to a five year deal worth $47 million.
Additionally, he traded for Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay. Ricciardi either left his data analysis tools in Oakland when he left Billy Beane's side, or he thought he was paying in Canadian dollars. Ryan received the largest contract ever for a closer, though he has only been a closer for one-and-a-half seasons, amassing 42 career saves. He signed a bigger contract than Mariano Rivera has ever received.
When mentioning A.J. Burnett's name, the words "durable," "tough" and "200 innings" are not present. Should being durable not be a prerequisite to signing a five-year deal, especially for a starting pitcher?
Burnett has missed two-and-a half of his six major league seasons due to injury, or 42 percent of his career. If Burnett maintains his historical injury rate and misses two seasons in Toronto, the contract is looking more like three years at $55 million. In 2003 he only pitched 23 innings; in 2004, he mustered 120. This is not a surefire ace.
Burnett is a financial risk. If you were stuck in mediocrity in the toughest division in baseball and were given an additional $25 million to spend, wouldn't you want a sure thing? I know I would.
