Now that the off-season dust has settled, we can take an in-depth look at the marketability of newly signed baseball players. Here, we will analyze the positional player-free agent market, which by usual standards was quite weak this year, especially as Hideki Matsui and Paul Konerko quickly signed with their 2005 teams.
Although there was not a plethora of big names, a few prizes were found that will deliver value for the money. The Dodgers took a chance on Nomar Garciaparra, who can still perform, but has not been healthy over the last two seasons. This season is crucial for Nomar, who needs to avoid the DL and start spraying doubles around Los Angeles. Bill Mueller will also be playing at Chavez Ravine next season, reuniting with Garciaparra, Derek Lowe and manager Grady Little.
The Cubs signed Jacque Jones to replace Jeremy Burnitz in right field, and the Cardinals snapped up Juan Encarnacion after Larry Walker retired. Jones signed for 3 years/$16 million, while Encarnacion received 3 years/$15 million.
Three catchers appeared in the top 15, with Ramon Hernandez signing with Baltimore for 4 years/$27.5 million, Brad Ausmus returning to the Astros for 2 years/$7.5 million, and Bengie Molina signing a one year deal for $5 million with the Blue Jays. The Orioles will shift Javy Lopez to 1B/DH, something that he is very unhappy about. Ausmus is the definition of a light-hitting catcher, but being a plus-defender up the middle holds much value among MLB GMs.
To evaluate a player's total production, we must combine what players do at the plate and in the field. For batting production, research from last year was used which quantified how much individual batting events contribute to runs. This was done by using a multiple linear regression equation with runs as the dependant variable and batting events as the independent variables. This shows how much a single, double, triple, homerun, etc., are worth on average. Using ten years of data, the following equation was derived:
Batting Runs = 0.565(1B) + 0.711(2B) +.986(3B) + 1.442(HR)+0.320(BB + HBP) + 0.215(SB) - 0.330(CS) - 0.125(OUTS)
The statistics from the median season of the previous three seasons for the top 15 free-agent position players were chosen to be plugged into the equation.
To evaluate fielding, Fielding Runs above Replacement (FRAR) values from Baseball Prospectus were used. Each player's number of batting runs was then combined with his number of fielding runs to come up with his total run production.
The points above the trendline (see line graph) represent good signings as they were paid below market value for their production, while the points below the line show over payment to the players.
The greatest distance above the trendline is Garciaparra, who received a $6 million contract due to his recent injuries, but if he returns close to his previous performance he will provide great value to the Dodgers.
My favorite signing, however, was Brian Giles at $10 million per year - $30 million over three years - with the Padres. He has a career OBP of 0.400 and nearly matches Konerko's production, while Konerko signed a five year, $60 million deal.
All of the highest paid players - Matsui, Damon, Furcal - were overpaid. Bill Mueller, in particular, has good production per million, but one must wonder if his knees will hold up for another three years.
The worst signing, according to the data, was Johnny Damon with the Yankees at $13 million per year for four years. He had the lowest production per million value of the top 15 free agents and is on the downside of his career. Not only was he overvalued, but he is also going to play worse as time progresses. History has not been kind to aging players who rely so heavily on speed, and Damon is far from the player he thinks he is.
