Both major American political parties have begun the process of choosing candidates and campaigning for the midterm elections in November 2006. President George W. Bush is facing the lowest approval ratings of his two terms, prompting many political observers to wonder whether Republicans will rally around the president or distance themselves from him as they seek to keep their majority in both houses. By contrast, the Democratic party is hoping to recapture control of Congress. This week we talk to Dean of Undergraduate Education James Glaser, a political science professor and an expert on American politics and local government elections.
Paul Lemaistre: President Bush's approval ratings have recently plummeted to around 36 percent. By comparison, his approval ratings in 2002 were around 65 percent. GOP members have nevertheless rallied behind the president for his wartime leadership. In the upcoming elections, will candidates find it beneficial to distance themselves from the unpopular president?
James Glaser: Well, you can usually tell what public sentiment is by observing the behavior of politicians. Right now, we're seeing [that] Republican members of Congress are less loyal to the President and more willing to speak out against the Administration's initiatives. As we get closer to the election, I think that you'll see some rallying around the president and the national security issue. But given that the President's approval ratings are so low and his standing in the populace isn't nearly what it has been, mostly you'll see Republican candidates separating themselves from the president - not so much running against the president, but running apart from the president. They'll be running local campaigns with local messages. Of course, Republicans have been in power for a long time, and that has given their incumbents the ability to deliver projects to their districts and claim lots of credit. My guess is that you'll see Republican candidates, at least incumbent candidates, trumpeting this.
PL: The elections will not occur until November. Eight months is a long time.
JG: A lot can happen in eight months, which is an eternity in politics. On the other hand, the president's current ratings are meaningful. What's going on right now is that incumbents - in both parties - are deciding to run or retire. Challengers are deciding if this is a good year to run. Donors are deciding whether or not to give money to something that can result in victory. When you add all these decisions up, you are essentially creating the teams that will compete next November... and so much of the outcome is determined by the quality of the teams that are put together. The quality of both teams, Democratic and Republican, is being determined right now. PL: President Bush announced an ambitious initiative in his 2006 State of the Union address to stop over-reliance on foreign energy reserves. Are candidates likely to address environmental issues, considering that promoting local alternative technologies and relying less on foreign oil can have positive implications for national security?
JG: It's possible, but not probable. I don't think that this issue is a winner for Republican candidates. It's not a message that resonates with their core supporters. Environmental advocates tend to be more on the Left. Energy independence may resonate with Republican voters, but I don't think that it motivates them. Of course in a midterm election it's all about turnout - who can get their voters to their polls... I think for the Republicans, [the main issues will be] national security, the economy, and effective representation at home. Some conservative Christian themes will also be played. Christian conservatives are core voters that Republicans can count on to vote, and moral issues resonate with them. For Democrats I think that the main themes will be Iraq, and competence. Competence encompasses ethics, the decision to go to war on incomplete intelligence, the conduct of the war and the ineffective response to the hurricanes.
PL: How will Democrats regroup for these elections? Will they have new tactics - or is it simply a question of operating off the President's low approval ratings or even just waiting for Republicans to make mistakes?
JG: Congressional elections are not well coordinated. It's a decentralized process that takes place in congressional districts and states across the country. It's hard to say that there will be a coordinated message. The only time in my memory that there has been a coordinated message is when the Republicans won control of both the House and Senate in 1994 and ran a masterful campaign around the 'Contract with America.' Maybe the Democrats will try to replicate something like that, something that symbolizes change and wraps up many of the issues that are important for them. In general, Democrats will want to nationalize these elections and Republicans will want to localize them. That is a switch from the way it used to be. Republicans right now are vulnerable because of the president's weak standing in the public, and also because of the string of problems that the administration has had over the past year.
PL Democrats must be looking towards several key states and districts. There is a challenge to Senator Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania, and even opposition to Rep. Tom DeLay of Texas - who recently prevailed in his party's nominations for that district. How significant would Democratic victories over well-known Republican figureheads be?
JG: DeLay in particular would be a symbolic victory, because the likelihood of a Democrat holding that seat for more than one term isn't very high, and Republicans would likely come back and win that seat because it's a very Republican district. But DeLay is a leader of the Republic party, a masterful technician, a smart and savvy politician. They've already halfway defeated him by having him removed from his leadership position. But to knock him off wholly would be, I'm sure, very satisfying for many Democrats, and for Texas Democrats in particular. While he's the number one target, the fact of the matter is that they will take a victory wherever they can get one, and the Republicans will try to defend their majority one by one, district by district. Rick Santorum is vulnerable because Democrats have recruited Bob Casey, a well-known, moderate candidate, the son of a former governor. He's actually a pro-life Democrat. That undercuts some of Santorum's strength. Democrats see [Santorum] as a real target, and it wouldn't surprise me if he lost.
PL: How difficult is it for parties to attract voters to congressional elections, which do not receive the same levels of publicity or funding that presidential elections do?
JG: 55-60 percent of the electorate votes in the general election. 30-35 percent of the electorate votes in the midterm elections - it's almost half. In a closely divided electorate, it's all about who gets to the polls on Election Day. It's easier to get the more ideological voters and the strongest partisans to the polls. It's harder to get the people in the middle and less ideological voters to show up on Election Day.
PL: The November midterms will encompass not only elections of national politicians, but also those of state and local government politicians. Victory in these posts will allow either party to spread influence in the lower levels of governance. Are the national committees making an effort to reach down to these levels, or is it the prerogative of the state parties?
JG: The state parties usually fight those battles, but it's not bad for the national parties to invest in them. I hear that Howard Dean is doing this and it makes sense. Local and state offices are places where candidates are groomed for higher office. The parties should be paying attention to what happens at these levels, because their futures are dependent on having people coming up the ladder. Of course, what happens at the state and local level also matters a lot in terms of our daily lives.
