Usually by this point in the season, the cream of women's college basketball has risen to the top.
Everything that's going to happen has already happened, most of the major conference tournaments are in the books, the final RPI rankings have been taken into account, and teams have had their last shot to prove themselves worthy of one of the coveted top four seeds.
But not this year. With at least 10 teams making strong cases for the top eight spots, the selection committee faces an unenviable task.
North Carolina is hands-down the best team in the country. At 28-1 overall and 15-1 in the best conference in women's basketball (their only ACC loss came in overtime to Maryland), the Tar Heels are No. 1 in the AP and Coaches' polls and RPI rankings. A 91-80 win over Maryland on Sunday for their second straight ACC title capped off a dream season, exacted some revenge on the Terps for the regular-season loss, and locked up a No. 1 tournament seed.
After that, it gets a little tricky. The three remaining No. 1 seeds will likely go to LSU, Duke, and Tennessee, with Maryland, Ohio State, Rutgers, and UConn filling out the next four spots.
LSU is no surprise. With the frontrunner for Player of the Year in senior Seimone Augustus, the Tigers are in position to make a run at the national title.
Despite missing out on the ACC title game for the first time in seven years, the Blue Devils are a solid and explosive team. In the nation's toughest conference, Duke leads the nation in scoring, averaging 87.6 points per game. Though the Blue Devils ended their season with a loss in the ACC semifinals, the committee should look past the upset and reward Duke for an incredible regular season.
The Tennessee bid could come as a surprise considering the Lady Vols have been far from their usual force this season. Just two weeks ago, they weren't even a lock for a No. 2 seed, but the recent conference tournaments have the top 12 teams playing musical chairs.
The Vols are 11-3 in SEC play, making this season Pat Summit's first with more than one league loss since 1997. But with the SEC title win over LSU, nine wins against top-25 teams, and the toughest schedule in the nation, Tennessee will probably get the final top seed, heading the Albuquerque bracket. That said, Tennessee without Alexis Hornbuckle (out with a broken right wrist) is not the same team, and despite the last-second heroics of freshman phenom Candace Parker in the ACC title game, the Vols may find themselves overmatched in the middle rounds of the tournament.
Maryland could be rewarded with the final top slot for being the only team to get the best of the Tar Heels, and it likely would be in any other year. But unfortunately for the Terps, there can only be four No. 1 seeds, and they will likely be relegated to the first No. 2 spot. The Terps' run to the ACC title game was impressive, but the Lady Vols' final hurrah propels them past Maryland.
Two weeks ago, Ohio State was on the brink of a No. 3 seed, locked with Oklahoma out for the eighth and ninth spots on the S-curve. While in the middle of an impressive win streak dating back to Jan.5 that now extends to 19 games, the Buckeyes hadn't truly distinguished themselves from the other 3-10 contenders. But the Buckeyes locked down a No. 2 seed when they snuck past Purdue, 63-60 to win their first Big Ten championship on Monday night.
The Big East tournament threw another wrench in the selection process. With Rutgers, the undefeated regular-season champion, making an early exit against twelfth-seeded West Virginia, and Connecticut's eventual win in the title game, the fight for a second seed got even more complicated.
With the top eight seeds sorted out, who gets shafted? The next two teams on the S-curve are an odd pair of Big 12 teams: the undefeated but often-overlooked Oklahoma Sooners and defending national champion Baylor.
With Ohio State and UConn holding conference titles, Oklahoma is likely to get the short end of the stick. The Sooners make a case for the nod with a perfect 16-0 record in the Big 12 regular season, but they will need a big-time showing this week to knock any of the No. 2s out. While they still have a chance to influence the committee with the Big 12 Tournament this week, anything short of a title will earn them the top No. 3 seed.
Baylor is an interesting case. On the shoulders of then-junior Sophia Young, likely a top-five pick in the upcoming WNBA draft, the Bears won their first-ever NCAA title last year, cruising past Michigan State to an 84-62 victory. And with Young returning, alongside two other starters from the championship squad, the Bears have underachieved this season, losing to Missouri and a hapless Texas Tech team. Even a run in the Big 12 tournament won't change the Bears' No. 3 ranking.
