Only two weeks into the Major League Baseball season, it's way too early to say who will be the studs and duds of 2006. Nevertheless, we can't help but ponder the predictive value of some early-season streaks and slumps.
This week, Inside MLB takes a look into a few of the more surprising and unsurprising starts of the year.
Something doesn't seem right when only two Boston Red Sox players are posting lower OPS than leftfielder Manny Ramirez. Currently 11-for-46 on the season, Manny leads Boston with his 16 strikeouts and has yet to send one over the fence. He's 6-for-22 with no runs at Fenway and has five strikeouts and only two hits in 12 opportunities with men in scoring position. All of this coming from a guy who in 2005 finished with 45 homers and the fourth-best OPS in the American League, rightfully hailed as one of the AL's best hitters?
Fear not, Red Sox Nation. It's tempting to point to Manny's well-voiced whines and complaints about his unhappiness in Boston as a possible cause for his atrocious start. But in reality, a beginning-of-the-season slump, as well as general unpredictably, is nothing too surprising from Manny.
Last year he also had mediocre April numbers, going 23-for-87, although he did hit seven homers. Over the past three seasons, especially last year, Manny has shown a tendency to post his best stats after the All-Star break.
Bottom line: Manny always ends above the curve with Hall of Fame-worthy offensive performances, and he'll get there eventually in 2006. He'll probably be lazy and take his time, but he's Manny. What else can you expect?
The outlook isn't as bright for another renowned slugger: the San Francisco Giants' Barry Bonds. Going into Monday, through 11 games he's gone 4-for-21 without a home run. Pitchers are still wary of Bonds' bat, as he's walked 11 times, three of which were intentional, helping him still post a respectable .755 OPS.
There's a chance that Bonds could mimic Jason Giambi and bounce back from a steroid scandal to have a killer second half after a severe slump. But somehow that seems unlikely.
Bonds is chasing records that people now doubt he has the right to break. He's facing a likely indictment for perjury. Also, he's 41 years old, 30 pounds too heavy and has a bad knee. Chances are Bonds' spirits aren't too high, and we've seen in the past that his mental state seems to be reflected in his offensive ups and downs.
Baseball Prospectus projects a 75 percent chance that 2006 will be a "collapse" season for Bonds, or that his equivalent runs per plate appearance will decline by at least 25 percent compared to his past three seasons.
But on the other hand, if Bonds can avoid a decline this year, he might prove himself worthy of the Hall of Fame without chemical assistance.
While all the fantasy GMs who drafted Bonds are now questioning their judgment, all who managed to draft designed hitter Travis Hafner of the Cleveland Indians should be patting themselves on the back for recognizing all of the signs that indicated another stellar season. Hitting .354, Hafner already leads both leagues with 20 runs scored and is in second place with 7 home runs. His OPS is an obscene 1.337.
In 2005, Hafner was second to only New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez in the AL with a 1.003 OPS. Over the past three seasons Hafner, a lefty, has hit .320 against right-handed pitchers.
Despite a .319 BA and 18 home runs in the first half of last season, Hafner was overlooked for the All-Star roster as the DH spot instead went to David Ortiz. But given Cleveland's strong overall start and his unsurprising hot streak thus far, 2006 could be the year in which Hafner is finally recognized as one of the best hitters in the game.
Chicago White Sox first baseman Jim Thome is also on an offensive tear. Thome is neck-and-neck with Hafner with seven long balls and a 1.434 OPS. Early in the season, baseball analysts weren't entirely sure what to expect from Thome, who was plagued by injuries in 2005. But the 35-year-old slugger has jumped on the fast track to another strong season, although his current stats should eventually normalize closer to his still-strong career averages of .281 BA and .973 OPS as the season goes on.
Overall, the hottest offensive start has probably been that of Detroit Tigers first baseman Chris Shelton, who has only a little over one year of major league experience. He's hitting .467 in 48 at-bats in 12 games and leads or is tied atop the league in several categories, including hits (24) and home runs (nine).
Although Shelton has shown strong offensive potential in the past - he hit .299 in 2005 - this amazing start wasn't anticipated. It will be interesting to see if his hot streak cools off considerably or if he winds up the unexpected breakout star of baseball this year.
It's part of statistical theory that eventually, given time, most streaks and slumps will normalize closer to the average. This is good news for the players in slumps, but it will be hard for most of the players on offensive streaks to maintain such high numbers for too long.
