The time has come.
School's almost out, the weather is finally warm enough that people will stop wearing those big, furry boots that look like small animals, and baseball season has started. But before you Red Sox fanatics get too crazy, let me remind you: you've got just under 150 games to go. Manny's hair will look just as ridiculous in July.
For now, do yourselves a favor and tune into the season's real sports entertainment: the NBA Playoffs. This year promises plenty of excitement, and here's a look at what you can expect.
In an effort to save the best for last, let's look at the Eastern Conference. I'm not sure why there is no semblance of parity between the two conferences; I mean, since the West's complete dominance began a few years ago, the East has imported many of the league's top players.
Shaq traded in his Pacific beach house for an Atlantic one, Stephon Marbury and Rasheed Wallace made the move, and Eastern teams have drafted such top players as Wade, Bosh, Okafor, LeBron, Dwight Howard, and Andrew Bogut. But whatever the reason, there just isn't enough talent to go around, and so the league remains completely stratified. The Nets are slightly inferior to the Pistons and the Heat, and comparing any other team to those three is like comparing Smush Parker to Kobe.
What does this mean in terms of the playoffs? Expect the expected in the East. The only early matchup offering any bit of spice is whichever one Indiana plays in. It's still unresolved whether the Pacers will play Cleveland or New Jersey, but either way, Carlisle and his veteran crew will give their higher-ranked opponent a run for its money. I'd give the Pacers the edge over Cleveland but not New Jersey. Indiana's great team defense and interior presence can overcome LeBron by himself but not the combination of Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson.
In the second round, Miami and Detroit will triumph no matter who their competition is. Detroit's five stars, clutch shooting, and defensive dominance are too much for any Eastern team to handle, and while New Jersey will put up a good fight against Miami, you can expect a mildly entertaining five to six games in which the Heat prevail. Vince Carter is a star and Jason Kidd is still one of the league's top point guards, but Wade can outplay both of these guys. And I don't care how much potential Nenad Krstic has been showing - next to Shaq, he'll just look like a skinny amateur.
The Eastern finals should present a rematch of last year's series between Miami and Detroit, but hopefully this year Wade's ankle won't turn at an incredibly unpropitious time. While this will be a great series, I'm banking on Detroit. First of all, Ben Wallace is perhaps the only guy in the league who can keep a healthy Shaq from dominating. And furthermore, while I think Wade is superior to Billups or Hamilton, he's not better than the combination of Detroit's two all-star guards. Also, who could Miami possibly expect to guard Rasheed Wallace? Udonis Haslem? Antoine Walker? Come on. So, the bottom line is that Wade won't be quite enough to overcome all of Detroit's weapons.
On to the matchups to watch in the West side (the best side). I'm partial to the higher seeds here too, but Brand, Kobe, Artest, and Gasol will make every series competitive. I'm writing this before the seeding is finalized, but I think either the Clippers or the Grizzlies will steal round one from Denver. Both lower seeds have better records, and I think Denver will get rattled when Gasol or Brand tempers Carmelo.
The second round games should be fantastic, but the Dallas vs. San Antonio series should take the cake. These teams are so evenly matched and have had such similar records all year that, to predict seeding, people have been talking about four different tie-breakers.
My shocking prediction is that my Mavs will win this series - in six. Why? Because our superstar is playing the best basketball of his career (you might say he has been ri-Dirk-ulous) and San Antonio's is suffering from some unpronounceable but serious foot ailment. The Spurs like to put Bowen on Dirk, which means they won't have an adequate defender to cover Josh Howard.
Still not convinced? The Mavs' second unit is infinitely better than the Spurs' - we've got former all-stars like Jerry Stackhouse and future all-stars like Devin Harris, and they've got foreign guys with funny names and loveable-but-washed-up veterans. Furthermore, Spurs' coach Greg Popovich won't have a coaching advantage, since he spent the last few years teaching Mavericks coach Avery Johnson everything he knows.
Finally, we're hungry. We want to prove Charles Barkley wrong, Dirk wants to prove his MVP worth, and these guys all want to be around in June.
I expect Phoenix to prevail over either Denver, Memphis or the Clippers, because while all these teams have excellent power forwards to compete with Marion, none of them has an answer to Nash. Nash's vision will create too many weapons for his opponent's defense to contain.
And so the Western Conference finals should be a rematch of last year's second-round series between the Suns and the Mavs. Phoenix will get off to a quick start because Dallas will be tired from San Antonio, but the Mavs will bounce back. Dirk will have a string of monster games, Avery Johnson will nearly blow a gasket, and all of the Mavs' fringe players like Marquis Daniels and Adrian Griffin will step up, eager to prove their talent and establish their worth in the league.
The finals: Mavs over Pistons in seven; more on this to come. Until then, enjoy the playoffs. Laugh at Kobe's tights (circulation? pssh), ooh and aah at Wade's spectaculars, and appreciate the best sporting event this time of year has to offer.
