As the Sept. 19 Massachusetts gubernatorial primary draws closer, three Democratic candidates are vying for their party's nomination in an exceedingly close race, while the Republican candidate, Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, straggles in the polls.
While previous polls showed venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli as the leader among the Democrats, a poll published in the "The Boston Globe" on Aug. 27 showed the three candidates in a statistical three-way tie. Deval Patrick, former assistant U.S. Attorney General for civil rights led the race with 31 percent support; Attorney General Thomas Reilly had 27 percent, and Gabrieli had 30 percent.
The state primary will be held on Sept. 19; the general election will take place on Nov. 7.
David Dahl, political editor for "The Boston Globe," said that, despite fluctuations in the Democratic candidates' poll standings, all three have a shot at the nomination in what has proved to be a very tight race.
"It's close, because they're all well established candidates," Dahl said. "That sounds kind of simplistic, but they all have the experience and financial means to be competitive."
The race has tightened since the June 3 state Democratic convention, when Patrick received his party's official endorsement and Gabrieli managed to garner just enough support (15 percent of the vote) to have his name placed on the ballot; Reilly entered with 26 percent to Patrick's 58 percent.
Dahl said that the current parity has emerged because each campaign derives its strength and appeal from a distinct source.
Gabrieli's campaign has drawn strength from his clout within the business world, and tapped into his formidable financial resources to mount also a "robust television effort", Dahl said, to mine new supporters since his initially meager showing.
Conversely, Reilly has capitalized on his current political status and voter awareness to seek backing in the political arena. "Reilly has significant name recognition," Dahl said. "He has a lot more traditional support among elected officials, and he has the money in the bank to run a successful campaign."
Tufts senior and student body president Mitch Robinson, who is also Deval Patrick College Coordinator, maintains that Patrick's has gone from being virtually unknown to having a good shot at the governorship. According to Robinson, Patrick can challenge his more affluent or established opponents largely because of a massive grassroots effort across the state of Massachusetts - which Robinson believes outweighs Patrick's endorsement from the state convention.
"Normally, the state endorsement means very little," Robinson said. "You would think that it would be such a big deal. What's important is how many people came out and got involved in politics during that convention."
Healey, who became the GOP candidate after incumbent governor Mitt Romney decided not to pursue re-election, currently lags behind in the polls. She faces the prospect of breaking a chain of Republican governors in a state that has not elected a Democrat to office since Michael Dukakis in 1986.
To live up to her party's precedent in Massachusetts, Healey has made government spending a pivotal issue in her campaign, press secretary Amy Lambiaso said. "The state budget can't sustain the spending increases it has the past few years," she said, noting that Healey advocates a freeze in taxes on gasoline, and has also signed a pledge to enact no new taxes if elected.
Despite receiving the endorsement of Romney, Healey has diverged from her predecessor's views on several key issues, Lambiaso said. One difference is her explicitly pro-choice platform, clashing with Romney on his veto of an emergency contraception bill that would have allowed hospitals to dispense the morning after pill to victims of sexual assault.
All candidates focused on the recent declining population rate and departure of corporate businesses from Massachusetts. Lambiaso said that this issue is rooted in financial concern. "A big question is, how can we make Massachusetts more affordable: more affordable to live, more affordable to have a business in, more affordable to raise a family," she said.
Healey is trying to address this issue with college students by offering jobs to graduates of Massachusetts schools, offering college loan forgiveness in high demand fields like nursing and engineering. She is also offering prospective homebuyers tax-free 401K accounts to help them purchase homes.
Energy issues also figure to play a decisive role in this election, Robinson said. "Whoever can catch onto renewable energy: it's going to be huge," he said. He cited the Cape Wind project, a proposed wind farm off Nantucket sound, which all three Democrats have backed.
