With Thursday night's Miami-Pittsburgh opener just 48 hours away, football season is upon us, bringing with it the promise of tailgating, bad beer commercials and the latest chapter in the T.O. soap opera.
But in recent weeks, the attention of many avid football fans is decidedly elsewhere. Over the past few years, fans' focus during the month of August has switched from roster cuts and preseason picks to fantasy football drafts as the virtual activity has grown into a viable commodity, according to a survey recently released by the consulting firm of Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
The industry is bigger than ever, with an estimated 37 million people spending an average of 50 minutes a week managing their fantasy teams in 2006, according to the survey.
And the kicker? Those hours spent assessing yardage and shuffling rosters costs businesses $1.1 billion dollars in productivity-weekly.
Additionally, the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA) estimates that the number of fantasy players has grown seven to 10 percent in the last three years, with CBS Sportsline, ESPN, and Yahoo all vying for the top spot.
As the number of participants has grown, so has the market for products and media attention. Fantasy owners are flooded with television shows, online articles and magazines dedicated solely to helping owners pick the sleepers and keep away from the busts.
Senior Dustin Virgilio, who has played fantasy sports for about five years, also buys into the media attention.
"There are some people who watch all the shows on ESPN and listen to what all the experts say," Virgilio said. "I'd be lying to say if I didn't. I watch some of it."
The effect of fantasy football on the fan base bothers Virgilio, however. Virgilio feels that it creates fans that care less about a team and more about how an individual player performs.
"They just know the stats," said Virgilio. "There are definitely some people who are just good at fantasy football and don't know anything about football."
But for junior Nate Grubman, who has played fantasy football for close to 10 years, the two are not mutually exclusive. As a diehard Chicago fan, his hometown Bears will take precedence.
"I root for the Bears first over my fantasy team," Grubman said. "If [Bears linebacker] Brian Urlacher tears the head off my fantasy running back, I'm not going to be mad."
Grubman, who served as commissioner of his leagues in high school, is in a smaller eight-team league with friends at Tufts. Virgilio is a member of the Tufts cross country team's annual league.
"I was actually in it my freshman year, but I actually didn't go to the draft and didn't follow it very closely, and I think I had the worst team in the league," Virgilio said. "So I feel like I have to redeem myself."
With all the preparation, many fantasy owners wonder how they can pull off the win, since much of the league's outcome is based on injuries and individual success, factors out of the hands of a computer junkie.
"I just read through and kind of look at the stats and see if there are any reasons why a guy should play better or worse," said Grubman. "It's pretty simple. And definitely there's so much of it out of your control."
But Grubman believes that fantasy owners can safeguard against factors that can sink a fantasy team.
"I think you have to put yourself in a position to win, which is kind of a sports clich?©," Grubman said. "You have to be smart and look at guys with injury risks and plan accordingly. You have to account for bad luck. Although, once you put yourself in a position to win, a lot of it is luck in terms of who comes out on top."
The big question this year for fantasy players concerns the fourth pick in the draft. The first three picks are a lock for most owners, with running backs LaDanian Tomlinson of San Diego, Shaun Alexander of Seattle, and Larry Johnson of Kansas City all being solid first-round choices.
But the options for the fourth pick could end up making or breaking a team, as the running back corps thins quickly and questions arise across the league. Edgerrin James could be the same player for the Arizona Cardinals that he was for the Indianapolis Colts, but he could just be another mediocre back. Clinton Portis was very good for the Redskins last season, but a dislocated shoulder in Washington's first preseason game could be a red flag. Additionally, Tiki Barber is one of the most consistent fantasy performers in the past few years, but may not be a worth such a high pick.
"You're kind of screwed," Grubman said. "You're paying money to get into this league and you're getting screwed out of the top talent. I think the tough thing is that fourth and fifth are Clinton Portis and Tiki Barber. Both of them are great running backs but they're small and they don't get carries by the goal line, so you're kind of screwed there."
Both backs could end up forfeiting their red zone carries to bigger backs, like Brandon Jacobs in New York and T.J. Duckett in Washington.
Another unconventional approach that owners might take would be to draft a quarterback like Peyton Manning of the Colts or the Cincinnati Bengals' Carson Palmer with the fourth selection rather than using a first-round pick on a running back.
Just as important as making the smart, obvious picks are finding the sleepers, players who might be overlooked by the majority of fantasy owners but who can put up good numbers for the divining fantasy eye. Virgilio mentioned both Green Bay's Ahman Green and Drew Brees, who starts his first season as quarterback of the Saints, while Grubman likes Eli Manning.
"You can get [Manning] for a good value," Grubman said. "He was unbelievable in the first half of last year, and it was his first year starting. So you kind of hit a wall, but I think he'll be at that level this year."
