October feels different this year, and I don't like it.
For the first time in four years, Red Sox fans are heading into October without a team to rally behind in the playoffs, and in a way, I feel totally unprepared. I'll be honest-a couple months ago, I cared more about whether Kevin Youkilis could hit Justin Verlander's curveball than about, say, who won the NL pennant.
I spend six months of every year obsessed with the Red Sox, and I want nothing more than to enjoy one more. But now that October is here with the Sox are sitting at home watching the playoffs, it's time to move on.
Yes, this summer was painful, but I'm over it. I've come to terms with my suffering, and I've decided to transform my life, rebuilding it around principles of wisdom, humility, and freedom from pain.
So at the risk of sounding a bit pompous, I'm gonna come right out and say it-I feel just like Buddha. And that being the case, I've got some enlightenment to share today. Without further ado, my Four Noble Truths for watching this year's playoffs:
This is the noble truth of suffering-The Yankees are better than everyone else. Period.
Now for many of you, that wasn't pleasant to read, and believe me, it was no picnic to write, either. But let's just look at the facts. The Yankees' starting lineup is made up of nine All-Stars. Their one weakness was a lack of offensive production at first base, but Gary Sheffield can plug that hole in a hurry. You can save me the "good pitching beats good hitting" lecture, because no pitching beats spectacular hitting. Damon, Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, Cano, Posada ... there's no weak link there. It's downright scary. Now, I won't be so bold as to say the Yankees will definitely win it all, because you always need a little luck to win in October. But with a lineup like that-and a pitching staff led by Mussina, Wang and Rivera-it's tough to lose.
This is the noble truth of the origin of suffering-If you can't win in September, you can't win in October, either.
In each of the past four years, the World Series winner has been a team that had a winning record in September. The Red Sox, for instance, were a whopping 21-11 in 2004 after Aug. 31. The reason is simple: to beat the best teams in baseball, you have to get hot in September and stay hot the rest of the way.
That being said, there are three teams who ran into trouble in September, and if you ask me, their Octobers won't be much better. I'm talking about the Tigers (12-16), the Mets (15-15), and the Cardinals (12-17).
All three teams have pitching issues. For the Tigers, it's inexperience, as Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman have never picked up a ball in the postseason. For the Mets, it's health (they're going to miss Pedro Martinez), and for the Cards, it's depth (no one besides Chris Carpenter knows what they're doing). These three teams are all in trouble.
This is the noble truth of the cessation of suffering-The Twins have the best chance of stopping the Yankees.
If you're going to stop a lineup as ridiculously good as the Yankees', it's going to take the best pitcher in the universe to do it, and that title goes to none other than Johan Santana.
Unfortunately, Minnesota would have had a better chance of beating the Yanks if they hadn't overtaken the Tigers and won the Central. That way, the Twins could use Santana twice in a five-game series and have a pretty good shot at knocking off the Yanks. As it is, however, the two teams are bound for an ALCS meeting. Do the Twins have the pitching depth to win in seven?
I'm inclined to say, "No," because Carlos Silva and Matt Garza have been downright horrendous. But the wild card (no pun intended) may be Boof Bonser, who went 4-1 in September. And with a name like Boof, how can we not root for him?
This is the noble truth of the eight-fold path-Someone has to win the NL pennant, and it might as well be someone from the West.
At this point, we can definitively say that days of the "NL Worst" are over. The two hottest teams in the National League-and perhaps in all of baseball-are in Southern California, and they could potentially meet in the NLCS. The Dodgers won their last seven games of the season while the Pads took nine of their last 11. The Padres have Jake Peavy, Chris Young and David Wells, and the Dodgers have Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux.
I'm gonna give the slight edge to the Dodgers, for two reasons. One, all three of their aforementioned pitchers already have World Series rings, helping them in the intangibles department. And two, it's hard to bet against Nomar Garciaparra and J.D. Drew with how they're hitting right now. Besides, I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for Lowe, Nomar, Bill Mueller, Aaron Sele, and Jose Cruz Jr. So, gun to my head, I'll pick the Dodgers to win the NL pennant (before getting swept in the World Series, of course).
But if it backfires, and the Dodgers choke in Game 7 of the NLCS ... blame Grady Little.
Evans Clinchy is a sophomore who has not yet declared a major.
