When the Jumbos take the field tomorrow against Conn. College, they need a win to have a chance at home-field advantage on Sunday in the first round of the NESCAC Tournament. But they will also need the cards to fall just right, in the form of a win of their own over the Camels, a Trinity loss to Middlebury, and a Williams win over Amherst.
In short, they need no surprises, and that is never a given on a NESCAC Saturday.
The most crucial match-up will take place in Vermont, where Middlebury, tied for first in the league, hosts fourth-place Trinity. If the Jumbos win and Trinity loses, the whistle on Sunday blows at Bello Field. Middlebury, ranked fourth in the nation, is 11-2 on the season and should take care of the Bantams, although the Panthers may still be reeling from a 4-3 surprise loss to unranked, non-conference Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute on Wednesday.
A Trinity win would send the Jumbos on the road, although their destination is unclear. If the league standings hold and Williams beats Amherst, Tufts will head to Hartford to play Trinity on the road. But a Williams loss to sixth-place Amherst would throw a Jumbo-sized wrench in the works. Coupled with Trinity and Tufts wins, a Williams loss would yield a three-way tie, with all three teams sitting at 6-3 in NESCAC and having split their three meetings with each other, making a head-to-head tiebreaker impossible.
And that's when early season losses to Middlebury and Bowdoin would come back to haunt the Jumbos, as the NESCAC's next tiebreaker is each team's record against the other top four teams. Trinity would have wins over Middlebury and Tufts, and Williams beat Bowdoin and Trinity, giving both teams 2-2 records in that group. The Jumbos, however, have beaten only Williams in that group and would be relegated to the fifth seed. Williams would win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Trinity, dropping the Bantams to the four-spot and earning the Ephs the third seed - and a first-round rematch with the Jumbos, this time at home.
This is all dependent on Amherst playing the spoiler role tomorrow. The Lord Jeffs started slow this season, losing six of their first eight but have turned their season around in recent weeks. The Ephs, however, have gone 1-2-1 in their last four games and are playing without two starters, including NESCAC scoring leader sophomore Meighan McGowan, who is out with pneumonia.
"I was very impressed when we played [Amherst]; we were lucky to get that win," coach Tina McDavitt said of the Jumbos' 1-0 win over the Lord Jeffs on Sept.23. "They're playing really well right now, and Williams is struggling a bit. You need to adjust the play on grass, and how quickly you can adjust is the difference between a win and a loss. It'll be an interesting game."
With Amherst riding a six-game win streak, Williams looking far from invincible, and the game's being played at Amherst's Hitchcock Field, the only grass surface in the NESCAC, a win for the Lord Jeffs is possible.
Playoff scenarios are fun, but none of this matters without a Tufts win tomorrow. A loss to the Camels automatically gives the Jumbos the five-seed and sends them on the road, either to Hartford or Williamstown.
"It's a big weekend for everyone," senior co-captain Stacey Watkins said. "You really can't count anyone out. I know we're ready."
- by Liz Hoffman
