Apocalyptic mayhem, contingency plans, and gas masks have re-entered the rhetoric of some academic and medical professionals who are thinking seriously about a flu pandemic.
"How likely will it be this year? I don't think anybody knows," said Dr. Margaret Higham, Medical Director of Health Services.
Still, doctors and professors across the globe are predicting that a new global flu pandemic is impending, based on historical patterns.
"A pandemic flu is a new or novel strain of influenza that the population hasn't experienced for a really long time," Higham said.
Yet it is impossible to predict exactly when, and with what force, such a pandemic will occur.
"We tend to get three pandemics a century. We're clearly overdue for one. The last one was '68, so it's been nearly 40 years," Associate Professor of Economics David Dapice said. "That doesn't mean we'll get it this year or next year, but in the next five or 10 almost certainly."
The H5N1 strain of avian flu has officials particularly perplexed: the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that in 2006 the strain spread from Southeast Asia to central Eurasia and killed 73 people. H5N1 is not transmissible between humans, but birds and a limited number of people have caught the disease from contact with infected birds.
When a strong flu strain mutates and gains the ability to spread from human to human, it becomes "pandemic."
"At this point, it doesn't seem to me that the avian flu is progressing rapidly enough that [the pandemic] is going to be avian flu this winter, but it could certainly be another flu," Higham said.
The recent hype about bird flu stems from the 1997 discovery that the virus could transfer from fowl to humans, and evidence that about half of those infected with H5N1 have died, according to the WHO.
A pandemic would inevitably affect all areas of the world; countries can only delay the flu's spread and prepare for the worst.
Preparations for a flu pandemic are largely a personal responsibility, especially because modern techniques of vaccine production would take at least six months before any substantial amount of medication would be produced, according to Higham.
Educational efforts urging individuals to take action stress several problems that would arise in the event of a new pandemic.
Food transportation, water supplies and medical resources would falter under tremendous stress. Airlines could be temporarily closed.
"If there is a bad pandemic flu, it's not too dissimilar from Katrina hitting the whole country. When Katrina hit, an area was paralyzed," Higham said.
To safeguard against these problems, educators advise that individuals should stockpile enough food and water to last a month in isolation.
Following strict hygienic standards like frequently washing hands and not sharing drinks will be essential should the worst come to pass.
Aside from individual action, institutions like Tufts also have a role to play.
The Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine is attacking avian flu from a research perspective.
Projects have studied methods to contain the virus and identify it in animals, as well as techniques to monitor animal populations throughout the world.
"In terms of safeguarding on a global level, the [Veterinary] School is our leader," Higham said.
Efforts at the Medford Campus have centered more on education than on research development.
A task force created at the request of University President Lawrence Bacow has begun to sponsor educational seminars that urge the community to plan ahead.
John King, the Director of Public and Environmental Safety at Tufts and head of the new task force, could not be reached to comment by press time.
Also, a low-pathogenic form of the bird flu has been found this year in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Montana, Michigan, and Maryland, according to Reuters.
There have been no confirmed cases of avian flu in humans in the United States, and the form found is less dangerous than the H5N1, strain that has been problematic abroad.
For now, though, most students don't seem to be very concerned about the possibility of a global pandemic.
"I think we're taking the necessary precautions to make sure it doesn't [spread]," sophomore Edgar Hammershaimb said. "I don't think we need to worry about bird flu here in the foreseeable future."
