As most Tufts students know, the winter months in Massachusetts bring erratic snowfall, bone-chilling wind and bitter temperatures.
According to meteorologists, those icy slogs up and down the Hill may be a bit more bearable this year - but it will still be cold. Predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a branch of the United States Department of Commerce, say this winter is likely to be warmer than the 30-year average but colder than last year's winter season.
"Right now, the way we see things, we expect the Northeast - and that includes Boston - to have more likelihood of seeing warmer-than-average temperatures rather than cooler-than-average temperatures," said Michael Halpert, the head of forecast operations for the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Last year, he said, the United States saw "a pretty mild winter coast to coast."
While the area may see some harsh conditions in the early part of the winter, Halpert said these will begin to taper off in late December and early January when warm air is funneled toward New England by El Ni?±o, a tropical weather pattern that often affects winter temperatures in the United States.
"El Ni?±o favors a pattern that suggests the Northeast may begin to see milder conditions during towards the middle and end of the winter season," Halpert said.
Some scientists have disagreed with the warm forecast, citing high-pressure zones in the arctic regions and early record-breaking snowfalls in Buffalo, N.Y. and in the Midwest.
Meteorologists at Accuweather.com predict "a cooler-than-normal winter along the East Coast," which could include a "severe, prolonged cold - 10 days or more of temperatures averaging five to 10 degrees below normal - during the middle to late winter."
Halpert said the early snowfalls will have little to no effect on the winter season, as fall patterns are generally unrelated to winter conditions.
"We don't see very much correlation," Halpert said. "It's certainly not a harbinger of what's to come this winter."
For Jumbos, a warm winter would be a blessing, since most students travel across campus on foot and must trudge through Boston's arctic winter conditions on a daily basis. For freshman Caroline Carollo, a native of sunny Miami, warm weather would be a miracle.
"I'm dealing with the weather horribly!" said Carollo, who has only been to New England twice before during the winter months. "Both times it snowed, and I hated it."
Realizing that she had been underdressed when she visited Massachusetts in the past, Carollo said she originally thought she would be able to deal with the cold weather if she dressed warmer.
"I didn't have the right clothes or shoes or anything, so I figured that was the problem," she said. "But I'm almost 100 percent sure I will be the coldest student at Tufts - 65 degrees, and I'll be wearing my down jacket."
Carollo said she bought that jacket two weeks ago, along with scarves, boots, mittens and other gear, when temperatures started to drop.
"The jackets and layering definitely help," she said. "But I'm kind of scared to go outside now. It looks so grey and cold."
Like Carollo, many students from areas outside of Massachusetts are surprised when they first experience winter in New England. Junior Lani Ackerman said she was unprepared when she first left her home in San Francisco to attend Tufts.
"Freshman year, I had no idea what to do with myself. I got pneumonia from not dressing the right way, and I was sick for over a month," Ackerman said. "It gets cold in San Francisco, but definitely not like Boston."
For sophomore Sarah Greenberg, who hails from West Tisbury, Mass., those bleak conditions are nothing new.
"In typical winter, it starts snowing in late October, gets warm for a few days in March, and then we have another freak snowfall sometime in April," she said. "When you think winter is finally over, wait a week, and you'll have snow on the ground."
Greenberg said that, in spite of the bitter cold and wind, the weather in New England can be enjoyable once people overcome their initial shock at its forcefulness.
"It's always freezing here in the winter," Greenberg said. "I slip and slide everywhere, but I still love Massachusetts weather."
For Ackerman, though, the cold is not quite as endearing. She said dealing with the winter conditions is a challenge every year.
"As the years go by, I'm better at dealing with it, but now I know that after graduation, I'm living somewhere warm," Ackerman said. "I don't understand why anyone would willfully put themselves through a whole lifetime of Boston winters."
