A successful fantasy draft requires more strategy than simply knowing what budding stars to target and which over-the-hill All-Stars to avoid. Here are some other approaches to selecting a sound team:
Chicks dig the long ball. The idea is this: year-to-year, hitters are generally easier to predict than pitchers. They have less fluctuation in their performance, and are generally less injury prone. Thus, it makes sense to load up on many low-risk offensive players early in the draft, abstaining from taking pitcher until the seventh or eighth round.
This way, it is virtually guaranteed that the offense is going to rack up points in nearly every offensive category, taking pressure off the team's pitching, which only has to be decent to win the league. Because pitching is so unpredictable, owners are more likely to find undervalued pitchers late in the draft - or even on the waiver wire during the season - than they are likely to find undervalued hitters.
Aces high. There are very few true "ace" pitchers out there, and if a team can grab three or four of them, its pitching will be set. This means using several early-round picks to nab the best pitchers available. If it works out, the team's pitching is going to be far better than anyone else's, and will survive with a couple of mediocre pitchers in the back of the rotation. This is quite risky, however, as pitchers' performances tend to fluctuate from season to season, and it is not uncommon for a pitcher to miss a significant amount of time with an injury.
Position scarcity. There are far fewer good players at catcher and second base than there are at first or third base. Thus, the top catchers or second basemen are worth far more than the top first baseman or third baseman, even if their raw stats are not as good, because the marginal drop-off in talent is much worse for these positions.
Therefore, one must take players from "scarce" positions over those from deep positions early in the draft. Because everyone has to fill the same number of spots, some people are going to be left with huge holes at shortstop, second base, and catcher; no one, however, is going to have a huge hole at first or third base.
But there is one caveat: the size of the league. If there are only eight teams in the league, this strategy is risky because the player pool is shallow. On the other hand, if the league has 12 or 14 teams, this strategy should be effective.
Best available. Take the most productive player available with each pick, regardless of position. This is the best way to maximize your squad's production, allowing owners to trade from a position of power during the season to fill the team's needs. But this strategy also relies on the willingness of other owners to make trades throughout the season.
Commitment is the key to success in each of these strategies. If position scarcity is chosen, it might mean bypassing some first basemen who are likely to put up gaudy numbers. If the owner chooses to follow the best available strategy, he or she might end up with four excellent third basemen and one mediocre shortstop. But if the owner sticks to the original plan, the team will ultimately be successful.
Furthermore, much of the success of these strategies depends upon the league in which the owner is playing. A smart owner can identify the strategies of other owners, and will thus mold the strategy accordingly in order to get the most value from the draft.
A smart owner will go into a draft with a game plan, as well as the willingness to adjust. Having a plan prevents owners from falling into the trap of making "reactive" picks - panic choices made after another owner snatched the marquee player on which they were counting.
Choose a plan, stick to it and ride it to victory.
