Finding an ace out of a pool of hurlers is often a tricky business for fantasy owners.
With their propensity for injury, pitchers are inherently high risk investments, even more so than hitters. And much of pitching success can be attributed to defense and luck, which is why pitchers' performances tend to fluctuate from year to year.
But that shouldn't stop us from trying to predict who might become the next top pitchers. What are some of the indicators which often spell future success, or at least an increased chance of success? If you know these, you will be able to find undervalued pitchers before they become the next big thing.
This list is not meant to show readers which relatively unknown pitchers might have an impact in 2006. Rather, this list is meant to show which pitchers have a reasonable chance to become truly elite players in the near future.
First things first: For pitchers, strikeouts are good. If the batter strikes out, it is extremely unlikely that he will reach base safely (how often is there a passed ball on a third strike?). Additionally, if the batter strikes out, he cannot advance baserunners or drive anyone home. Strikeouts are a sign of dominance by the pitcher, a suggestion that he is a lot better than the hitter that he just struck out. Generally speaking, the more strikeouts a pitcher racks up, the better.
Besides strikeouts, inducing ground balls is a "skill" for a pitcher - usually ground ball rates remain fairly stable from year to year. Balls hit on the ground are unlikely to become extra base hits, as grounders that become hits are singles, with the occasional double down the line; triples are almost nonexistent, and a ground ball cannot go over the fence for a home run. Ground balls also increase the chances of a double-play with runners on base (and partially explains the success of pitchers with relatively low strikeout rates, such as Derek Lowe, Chien-Ming Wang, Jake Westbrook and Aaron Cook).
The best pitchers are often those who combine above-average strikeout rates with above-average ground ball rates. These pitchers are going to allow fewer balls in play, and when the ball is put into play, it's unlikely to become anything more than a single. Against these pitchers, even if the batter doesn't strike out, it will take several hits in an inning to score even one run.
The Hardball Times offers these two stats side-by-side. One can sort the table by ground-ball rates, and then look to see which of the best ground-ball pitchers also have high strikeout rates. Some of the names which jump out are: Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano and John Smoltz.
There are also some not-quite-as-good-pitchers who stand out for their combination of high ground ball rates and high strikeout rates: Felix Hernandez (King Felix had the best combination of any pitcher in baseball), Andy Pettitte, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Bonderman, Dave Bush, Brett Myers, Josh Beckett, Scott Olsen, C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren and A.J. Burnett.
Yes, most of these pitchers are pretty good. But we're trying to find the next big thing, not the next pretty good thing. All of these pitchers can be drafted in the mid-to-late rounds of your fantasy draft and can probably be had in trade for a relatively cheap price. Pettitte aside, these pitchers are all quite young, meaning they are good bets to improve. Their high groundball rates coupled with their high strikeout rates suggest that this group of pitchers has a very high ceiling.
Of course, some of these pitchers have some flaws which are holding them back. Bush, Haren and Beckett give up too many homers, and Olsen walks too many. Even with these flaws, however, these pitchers are still an excellent bet to at least maintain their success, and they have a great chance of improving. Bedard, Bonderman, Myers, Sabathia and Burnett all have the unique combination of excellent stuff, solid track records and indicators that suggest they have a great chance of jumping into the elite category of pitchers, alongside Webb, Carpenter, Oswalt, etc.
Based on an examination of these numbers before last season, one would have predicted improved seasons from Webb, Bonderman and Sabathia. Lo and behold, all three improved on their previous numbers, and Webb vaulted into that top category (although the argument could made that Sabathia is there, too, as he had the third best ERA in the AL and seventh best in baseball - and keep in mind that the AL was much stronger than the NL last year). Meanwhile, Bonderman's groundball and strikeout rates improved even more during the 2006 season.
Of course, there is more than one way to become an elite pitcher. For example, Johan Santana's ground-ball rates are not abnormally high. But in general, if you want to find the next big thing, find an already pretty good pitcher with high ground ball and strikeout rates. Then be sure to tell your friends that you told them so.
