When you haven't won a World Series title since 1908, it's easy to have low expectations.
It's even easier when you're the Chicago Cubs, who endured a frustrating 2006 season as the worst team in baseball's worst division: the National League Central. Dusty Baker's Cubbies lost 96 games last season, the most of any NL club, and a far cry from the 88-74 squad that won the Central and came within one infamous foul popout of an NL pennant in 2003.
The scapegoats for the franchise's collapse are pitchers Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, who combined for 32 wins in that '03 campaign but have never quite been the same since. Wood struggled so mightily after 2003 that he was relegated to the bullpen by '05. Prior, who made 30 starts in '03, never equaled that total again, as the oft-injured young righty took the mound just nine times in 2006.
The duo's woes have only continued this season. Having already taken eight trips to the disabled list, Prior, 26, was penciled in for exploratory arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder yesterday, just weeks after a horrendous spring training season left him off the major league roster.
Coincidentally, Wood has also experienced pain in his right shoulder and has been on the 15-day DL since March 29 with "shoulder stiffness."
With the team's two supposed aces missing in action, it appears that the Cubs are headed for another last-place finish in the abysmal NL Central, right?
Well, yes and no. While the Cubbies, who entered yesterday's action with a frustrating record of 7-12, are in sole possession of last place for the time being, the numbers may be a bit misleading. In actuality, the Cubs, unlike four of their five NL Central competitors, have scored more runs than they've allowed, with an impressive total score of 87-77 through their first 19 games.
If the offense is there and the pitching joins it, then it's possible that this year's Cubs are only missing one thing, and it may be the same thing they've been lacking for the past century: luck.
Even without Prior and Wood, the Cubs' pitching staff is still sure to start putting some notches in the W column soon. Ace Carlos Zambrano may not be off to his best start (he's 1-2 with a 7.77 ERA in his first four starts), but a trio of saviors - Rich Hill, Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly - have stepped up to return the North Side rotation to glory.
Pitching what could be his first full season at age 27, Hill has been the most impressive member of the rotation so far.
Entering last night's game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Hill owned the league's best ERA, at 0.41. In three starts, he'd allowed just one run on eight hits in 22 innings of work. The Cubs were undefeated in his three outings, including his eight-inning gem against the Atlanta Braves Thursday.
Marquis finally won himself a World Series ring in October after three deep playoff runs with the St. Louis Cardinals, but individually, he had a shaky year, turning in a 6.02 ERA and losing 16 games. He left St. Louis to sign a three-year, $20 million deal in Chicago, and since arriving at Wrigley, he's been solid.
In four starts, his ERA is a minuscule 1.88, but he suffered from an early lack of run support en route to a no-decision and a loss in the opening week. Since then, he's bounced back nicely, notching a pair of easy wins at home against the San Diego Padres and his ex-teammates, the Cardinals.
Lilly entered 2007 with a career record of 0-1 in the National League, having bounced around the junior circuit, from New York to Oakland to Toronto, since debuting with the Montreal Expos in 1999. A nasty run-in with Blue Jays' manager John Gibbons last August, however, was the last straw for the 31-year-old southpaw, who left town during the offseason and found himself a new home at Wrigley.
Like Marquis, Lilly has struggled to find run support in Chicago so far, but also like Marquis, he's got solid numbers otherwise. He's turned in four-straight quality starts with an ERA of 2.42, but he has only one victory to show for it: a 4-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds on April 4.
The run support issue brings with it two questions, both of them troubling for GM Jim Hendry and new manager Lou Piniella. One question is what to expect from newcomer Alfonso Soriano, and the other is whether Soriano will get any help from his supporting cast.
Hendry spent $136 million this off-season on an eight-year deal with the 31-year-old. It's easy to see why. The man has produced everywhere he's gone, from New York to Texas to Washington, and he even churned out a 40-40 season with the Nationals last year.
But thus far, Hendry has been slow to reap the benefits of his signing. Soriano has struggled with a hamstring injury and only recently returned to the lineup Sunday, and it remains to be seen where he'll end up in the Cubs' defensive alignment - in left field, in center, or at second base.
For the Cubs' offense, the woes don't end at Soriano. One-time MVP candidate Derrek Lee hasn't hit a single home run this season, and the team's entire outfield - Cliff Floyd, Jacque Jones and Matt Murton - has an OPS below .700. Hendry has loaded his roster with talent, but for some reason, his sluggers just aren't slugging this April.
If these guys can turn the Cubs' offense around in the coming weeks, this team should be just fine. In the weak NL Central, they may even contend for a division title. But if not, the Cubs will see that it's tough to win with no offense. They'll likely find themselves in a place they've gotten to know all too well - the cellar.
