The two best pitchers you've never heard of are both named Rafael.
You likely know all about the bullpens of the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Anaheim Angels. You understand how good Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera and Francisco Rodriguez, the closers for those respective teams, are. You probably even know that these teams possess additional high-quality relievers, such as Hideki Okajima, Joba Chamberlain and Scot Shields.
And chances are, if you've been following baseball this season, you might even know of the Cleveland Indians' closer, Joe Borowski. But you probably don't know much about his teammates, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez.
Borowski has stabilized the closer's role for Cleveland, compiling an AL-leading 40 saves. Borowski, however, also has a 5.31 ERA. This may, at first, indicate a pitcher who is far from effective. If the closer has an ERA over 5, this does not bode well for the rest of the bullpen, right?
Wrong.
Statistics for relievers are misguided and misleading. Consider: Pitcher X enters the game with the bases loaded and two outs. He proceeds to give up consecutive singles, and all three runners who were on base when he entered score. He then strikes out the third batter he faces. How many runs get added to his ERA? Zero, because the three runners who scored were all on base when he entered. Did pitcher X pitch well? Did he preserve his team's chance of winning? No. However, this is not reflected in his ERA.
The statistically-based Web site Baseball Prospectus has come up with a different way of tracking relievers' effectiveness. They consider how many runs are "expected" to score in a given situation and then how many runs the reliever actually allows.
This method is far better at evaluating relievers than ERA. According to this metric, the best reliever in the AL has been the Indians' Betancourt, with his teammate Perez in fourth.
The right-handed Betancourt has been a solid middle reliever for several years now, but this season, he has taken his performance to new heights. Betancourt has a 1.54 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 70 innings. Even more impressive, he has allowed only 54 baserunners. Betancourt relies on a sneaky fastball and pinpoint control: He has unintentionally walked only five batters all season.
Perez, a 25-year-old lefty, has come out of relative obscurity in the Indians' organization. Perez features a fastball with a lot of sink and a devastating slider. He is more than a mere lefty specialist, though left-handed batters this season are hitting just .107 against him. Perez boasts 1.49 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 54 innings, allowing only 39 baserunners.
Combined, Perez and Betancourt have thrown 127 innings, allowing 81 hits, walking 22, striking out 122, and posting a 1.49 ERA. In comparison, the Boston tandem of Papelbon and Okajima, widely considered the AL's best one-two punch out of the bullpen, have thrown 121 innings, allowing 75 hits, walking 28, striking out 141 and posting a 2.08 combined ERA.
One major key to Cleveland's playoff success is how manager Eric Wedge deploys his weapons in the bullpen - namely his two main relievers, Betancourt and Perez. If Wedge blindly adheres to the conventional wisdom of Joe Borowski being the "closer," it will hinder the Indians' chances of making a run this October.
However, if the Tribe holds a narrow lead over the Red Sox or Yankees in the eighth, and the 6-7-8 hitters are due to the plate, Wedge should bring in Borowski, saving Betancourt to pitch the ninth against the top of the order.
If Wedge understands that his best three relievers, in order, are Betancourt, Perez and Borowski, and manages them appropriately, the Indians' bullpen will be an additional strength for an already-strong club.
But will that be enough in October? No one knows. That's why they play the games.
