Although there have only been three weeks of football, some teams have already solidified a place at the top, while others have sealed their fate in the basement of their divisions.
The New Orleans Saints are the biggest surprise in the NFL by far. Last year's darling has not only started off at 0-3, but has looked bad doing it, losing by a combined score of 103-38. Even the Atlanta Falcons have a better point differential.
The defense has been far from notable, but the looming question is: what's wrong with Drew Brees? No one knows quite why Brees, who had arguably the best year of his career last year, is struggling so mightily.
Brees had a 96.2 passer rating last year, as opposed to only a 57.1 rating through three games this year. In sixteen starts last season, he threw 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. This year, Brees only has one TD against a whopping seven picks.
But Brees isn't the only one to blame. The problem also lies with his receivers. Marques Colston, who came out of nowhere to become the Saints' best receiver last year, is no longer an unknown. Opposing teams have figured out how good he is, and are now sending out double-teams, something he didn't have to deal with in 2006.
Devery Henderson, who is supposed to be the No. 2 receiver and main deep threat, has only four catches for 45 yards. The fact that Lance Moore - who had all of one reception last year - is the Saints' second-leading receiver is telling.
Brees is too good to keep playing like this, and the Saints will certainly turn things around at some point, but there is no guarantee that their offense will become what it was last year.
And with Deuce McAllister lost for the year to a torn ACL, things are only looking worse. It's too early to label the Saints a one-year wonder, but fans can certainly start worrying.
The St. Louis Rams (0-3), Chicago Bears (1-2) and San Diego Chargers (1-2) have also underperformed. Injuries to the Rams' squad have simply been too much to handle. Their offensive line has been decimated, quarterback Marc Bulger is playing through broken ribs, and running back Steven Jackson is out for a few weeks.
It's hard to write off a season after only three games, but luck and injuries play a huge part in the football season. The Rams have just been too unlucky and just too injured, and the number of people who can make a case for Brian Leonard carrying them to victory is small and getting smaller.
As for the Bears, they seem to have identified and eliminated the problem: Rex Grossman. With a defense and special teams units as good as the Bears have, the only thing the offense has to do is keep from turning the ball over.
Grossman simply wasn't able to do that, throwing six interceptions and fumbling his share of snaps. Brian Griese will take the starting job, and the veteran will most likely make better decisions on the field. The Bears' defense keeps them in games, and Devin Hester can score on any return. Griese isn't too far over the hill to turn this team around.
The Chargers are off to a disappointing start as well, getting trounced by the New England Patriots and taking a difficult loss last week to the Green Bay Packers. There's been talk about whether or not the Chargers should have fired coach Marty Schottenheimer, but it's all irrelevant.
The Chargers probably would have lost to the New England Patriots either way, and they simply let the Packers game slip out of their hands. But this is still a team with LaDainian Tomlinson, Lorenzo Neal, Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers. Their three opponents before their bye week are the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders, with two of the three at home. Look for the Chargers to be at least .500 heading into Week 7.
As for the surprises, the Packers are clearly this year's Cinderella team so far. Brett Favre looks rejuvenated and is having fun playing the game again. Their defense has been outstanding, and while they lack a significant presence in the running game, letting Favre sling it around the field has worked well. With wins over three teams who had real playoff aspirations coming into the season - the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Giants and the Chargers - the Packers look like a legitimate contender.
The other Cinderella team has to be the Houston Texans, who before this year had never started a season 2-0 in their six-year history. The team is now 2-1 after losing last week to the Indianapolis Colts, but even that contest should give Texans fans hope. Houston went into the game without its best player, wide receiver Andre Johnson, and quickly lost its top running back, Ahman Green, to another injury. Still, the Texans stayed in the game with the Super Bowl champs, losing a close one, 30-24.
The Texans' defense looks significantly better, and new quarterback Matt Schaub looks more comfortable than David Carr ever did. Houston's next three games are against the Falcons, Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars - three winnable games.
It may be difficult with Johnson and Green still out, but the Texans could be 5-1 in a mere few weeks. Then they'd be the class of the AFC, right there with the Patriots and Colts.
