South Korea's President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korea's Chairman of the National Defense Commission Kim Jong Il met last week in the second-ever summit between the two nations.
Both agreed to further peace and the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, as well as to pursue more economic cooperation.
This week, I visited Fletcher School Dean Stephen Bosworth, who served as U.S. Ambassador to South Korea from Nov. 1997 to Feb. 2001, in his Cabot office to talk about the ramifications of the summit and the future of the peninsula.
Jamie Bologna: The first-ever summit between North and South Korea took place back in 2000. What are some of your general thoughts on the significance of this second summit?
Stephen Bosworth: I think it is of moderate interest. I don't think 10 years from now people will look back on this summit and say, "This is when things began to change dramatically on the Korean peninsula."
Rather, it is a second, somewhat delayed summit, another step toward what I think is an inexorable coming together of South and North Korea that could take many years to play out or could, given certain unexpected events, being to happen very quickly.
The underlying factor is that North Korea is in a very weak economic position. They've just suffered another round of serious flooding, their agricultural production is weak, their industrial production is practically non-existent.
They are looking for ways [during] this stage in Kim Jong Il's life to sustain the regime. I think he probably has in mind some effort to pass it along to the third generation and also to relieve some of the pressure on the regime. So I think that the summit is part of an overall strategy involving the six party talks and the nuclear question and North Korean efforts to bring about some sort of a normalization of the relationship with the United States.
JB: What did South Korea have to gain from the summits?
SB: Well, they benefit from some sort of reconciliation with the north that reduces the military threat. [It's also a] response to their almost psychological urge to help other Koreans in the north and to set the stage and lay the ground for, as they would, an eventual reunification of the Korean peninsula.
JB: Both countries are already cooperating, as they've set up an inter-Korean industrial complex in the Kaesong Region in North Korea.
SB: Rather, it is an industrial zone in Kaesong, which is largely a very low-tech establishment where South Korean corporations come in and can use relatively cheap North Korean labor which is provided by the North Korean authorities.
JB: So then do you see this as a step forward in cooperation?
SB: Well, they're talking about as a result of the summit ... expanding that significantly.
JB: What is the future of the demilitarized zone? Do you expect the wall that runs through the middle of it will come down in the near future?
SB: Not for the foreseeable future - eventually, perhaps. The demilitarized zone, the border between the two countries, remains the most heavily militarized place on the face of the earth. Lowering that level of military presence will require a lowering of tensions and some form of gradual reconciliation.
And that's what the South Koreans aim at through their Sunshine Policy, or engagement policy. But it will be a long time, I think, before that barrier comes down, largely because not only do the South Koreans think it is useful for their security, but it also prevents a lot of North Koreans from fleeing south, leaving Kim Jong Il sitting in Pyongyang with no public under him. So he doesn't want freedom of movement by any means.
JB: How different are North and South Korea from each other?
SB: South Korea is an economic powerhouse ... It is the 11th largest economy in the world. As you know, its companies are now global brands: Hyundai, Samsung, LG and POSCO. And its people have achieved a relatively high standard of living.
North Korea is an economic wasteland. If you go there, there are no trees; the erosion has been horrendous. People don't have jobs. People are living on perpetual international charity.
JB: Are there any movements in North Korea to overthrow the government?
SB: If there were, we wouldn't know about it. It is a very tightly controlled police state.
JB: Compared to the first summit in 2000, I read reports that said Kim Jong Il this time around seemed less enthusiastic.
SB: There is a lot of speculation that his health is deteriorating. No one really knows. Well, someone knows, but we don't know. He may be less enthusiastic, I don't know.
He's dealing with Roh Moo-hyun, whose term expires in [around] five months, so he's a little bit of a lame duck. So I think Kim Jong Il is going to see how much he can get out of South Korea during this period before he has to start dealing with whomever is elected as Roh Moo-hyun's successor.
JB: Why do you think North Korea is now finally cooperating in dismantling its nuclear program?
SB: I think they've concluded they have more to gain, at the moment, from cooperating than they do from resisting. In fact, they've been under a lot of pressure from China. They need outside economic assistance, and I think it has become clear to them that only by resolving some of this nuclear problem can they obtain that.
JB: Do you foresee another summit in the future?
SB: I have no idea. I would think that if things go along as they are projected to go along, at some point, there will be another summit.
JB: What do you see in the future for the Korean peninsula?
SB: I have no idea. It could last another 50 years; it could all blow up tomorrow.
Jamie Bologna is a senior majoring in political science and Spanish. He can be reached at james.bologna@tufts.edu.
