"Alex, if you walk out that door, we're through! Don't come crawling back!"
This was, in essence, New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman's ultimatum to third baseman Alex Rodriguez. If A-Rod opted out of his contract, the Yankees would refuse to negotiate with him. If Rodriguez had merely extended his contract, rather than opting out entirely, the Texas Rangers were still on the hook for over $20 million. Cashman's edict seemed like it would hold - until A-Rod went crawling back.
A-Rod admitted he made a huge mistake. As it turns out, he had always wanted to be a Yankee. His pesky agent convinced him that leaving the team with the largest payroll would somehow improve his value. To his credit, agent Scott Boras quickly realized he had misjudged the market (or maybe, for once, owners behaved rationally).
Now it looks as if Rodriguez will ink a 10-year contract worth somewhere north of $275 million. This made too much sense not to happen.
The Yankees had a gaping hole at third base with few attractive solutions, the largest payroll in baseball and a dire need to improve themselves (or at the very least, not get any worse). Rodriguez, for his part, still likely hopes to "prove" himself in New York. Additionally, the Yankees will pay him more than anyone else. It's a match made in baseball heaven.
Rodriguez's signing severely limited the market for Mike Lowell, who was most likely to replace A-Rod at the hot corner had Rodriguez departed. Reports now, however, indicate that Lowell has a three-year offer in place with the Boston Red Sox.
Lowell, like A-Rod, belongs with his current team. Much of Lowell's success this year was a product of Fenway Park: He hit .373/.418/.575 with 14 homers at home, while batting only .276/.339/.428 with seven homers on the road. A quick glance at his spray charts suggests Lowell utilized the Green Monster in left field; many of his homers would have been easy fly ball outs in any other park.
Additionally, Lowell's career mark of .280/.344/.468 is almost right in line with his 2006 season. He is only two years removed from a miserable 2005 in which he hit .236/.298/.360. Lowell is going to be 34 years old next season and by all indications 2007 was a fluke. His age suggests he will actually decline from his career numbers, making him a poor bet for both the short- and long-term future. While Lowell's glove and leadership are valuable, they will not outweigh his likely offensive struggles.
Another fire burning on the Hot Stove involves the Florida Marlins' Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera, 24, is only a third baseman in name, not ability, though his offensive talent more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings.
His career batting line of .313/.388/.542 actually underestimates his actual offensive ability for several reasons. First, it is dragged down by his first two seasons when he was 20 and 21 years old - in the following three seasons his OPS has been .946, .998 and .966. Second, Cabrera plays in a park that is tough on hitters, especially right-handed power hitters. And finally, Cabrera is only 24 years old, and most hitters don't enter their peak years until 26 or 27. Cabrera is often overlooked because he plays for the lowly Marlins, but his career through 24 rivals that of Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez offensively.
Cabrera is probably going to be dealt because he will be due a large amount of money in arbitration during the next two years. But he will still not receive what he could command on the open market because he cannot become a free agent until after 2009. Because of this, the Marlins can rightly ask for an astronomical price in return for their young star. Whoever trades for him - both Los Angeles teams appear to be frontrunners - will be getting one of the best offensive players in all of baseball, but will likely have to part with three blue-chip youngsters in return.
