With all the drama and attention going towards the presidential race next year, it's easy to forget that in Congress, the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be up for re-election as well.
While the majority of Senate races are foregone conclusions, a few are real nailbiters. The following races look to be the nitty-gritty slugfests of 2008:
New Mexico: This seat wasn't on anyone's radar until a month ago, when Republican Senator Pete Domenici announced his retirement. The popular incumbent came under fire for his involvement in the firing of U.S. attorneys and his departure leaves an open seat in a truly purple swing state.
New Mexico went for Bush by a mere 6,000 votes in 2004 and went for Gore by a fractional 300 votes in 2000, so expect this race to be close. The state has three representatives, two GOP and one Democrat. All three have abandoned their seats to run for the prize of a promotion to the Senate, but the lone Democrat, Rep. Tom Udall, appears at this point to have an edge over his two GOP opponents.
With an open Senate seat, all three House seats open and the Governor's mansion needing a new occupant next year, it should be a very busy election season in New Mexico.
Louisiana: In what may be the first ever Senate race decided by weather patterns, Democratic incumbent Kathleen Blanco will seek to hold on to her job in a state that narrowly elected her six years ago (52 percent to 48 percent).
The only difference this time around, though, is the mass exodus of thousands of black voters, primarily from the New Orleans area, after Katrina hit two years ago. Compounding Blanco's problems is the fact that Louisiana is the only state besides Utah to be trending more and more Republican - the other 48 are turning bluer as Bush and his party continue their downward spiral.
Blanco is surely aware that her state elected Republican Bobby Jindal for governor by a huge margin just a month ago - a margin that cannot be explained away by the absence of tens of thousands of reliably Democratic black New Orleans residents.
Louisianans, furious with the response to Hurricane Katrina, may be angry with Bush on the national level, but they're irritated with the Democrats at the state and local level too. If Blanco weren't a rich, entrenched incumbent, I'd say to write her off. As it is, I'd say her chances of survival are even money at this point.
Virginia: No state is a better example of how quickly the political winds can turn against you than Virginia. Prior to 2000, Virginia was a ruby-red Republican state. It voted for GOP presidential candidates and a GOP governor and two GOP senators. Then, in 2001, an unknown Democrat named Mark Warner, who had made his fortune in the cell phone industry, ran for and won the Governor's mansion.
His single term made him the most popular Virginia Democrat in a lifetime. Since then, Virginia has elected another Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, a Democratic attorney general, kicked out one of its GOP senators (George "Maccaca" Allen) for a Democrat (Jim Webb), and looks very likely to replace retiring GOP Senator John Warner with Mark Warner (no relation), whose popularity remains unnaturally high.
Virginia's transition from blood-red to true-blue largely stems from the rapidly expanding Northern Virginia suburbs.
Look for Warner to easily ride them into the Senate next November.
Michael Sherry is a junior majoring in political science. He can be reached at michael.sherry@tufts.edu.
