After a NESCAC Championship meet that saw the fourth- through sixth-place teams finish within just three points of one another and each of the top six schools place at least one runner in the top 10, there is no denying that when these teams meet up for a rematch at this weekend's NCAA New England Championships at Conn. College, it will be a close race.
But enter nationally-ranked No. 26 MIT and a Colby team that won't be surprising anyone this time around - the unranked Mules stunned the Jumbos to take fifth place by a point and have since jumped to No. 29 nationally - and things begin to get even more interesting.
With seven teams in the country's current top 35 - including Amherst (No. 1), Williams (No. 8), Bowdoin (No. 21), Middlebury (No. 27), Tufts (No. 31), MIT and Colby - the New England region, a perennial powerhouse, has more top-35 teams than any other in the nation with the exception of the Central, which also boasts seven.
Only the top two finishers in this weekend's competition will earn an automatic berth to Nationals, and although New England will likely draw multiple at-large invitations due to its depth, a maximum of five teams from each region will be considered - which leaves two squads in the dust.
"I think probably four teams are pretty safe," coach Kristen Morwick said. "A lot will depend on the other regions, and that's hard to predict. New England has been really strong, so I wouldn't be surprised if they got five, but we're shooting to finish third to eliminate any doubt. But we could be anywhere from third to eighth - it's that close."
Despite the unlucky sixth-place showing at NESCACs, the Jumbos are confident that they can finish higher this time around. In the conference showdown, the Jumbos suffered from a drop-off after their top three runners - senior tri-captains Cat Beck and Katy O'Brien and freshman Stephanie McNamara - each placed within the top 15. But with a pack-running strategy, the Jumbos are working to eliminate that gap.
"In practice, we're doing really well [with the strategy]," Morwick said. "It's just a matter of implementing that in the meet. It's hard: It's a huge meet with over 300 runners, so it's hard to find your teammates. Hopefully, they can start out together. It'll be interesting."
Some of the Jumbos' problems this season have also come on account of an inexperienced squad behind Beck, O'Brien and senior Anna Shih. But while the rest of the Regionals group will be composed of freshmen McNamara, Amy Wilfert and Christy Loftus and new faces in sophomore Lisa Picascia and junior alternate Amy Hopkins, the team is confident that it will be up to the challenge come Saturday.
"Part of it is that this whole group is new to this race," Morwick said. "A lot have either never run in college or run this particular race, so it's sort of an inexperienced group. But if they do what they've been doing in practice, I think we'll be in good shape."
"Being new to the whole Regionals experience, while it may be slightly overwhelming, I think they'll be able to just roll with the punches," Beck said.
McNamara, who has continued to impress throughout her rookie campaign, will be leading this group.
"She's been great," Morwick said. "She's improved steadily throughout the course of the season, and if she's not right with Cat and Katy in practice, she's just a step behind them. She's looking great right now, and I think she's ready for a big race. She's probably running better than any freshman we've had since I've been coaching here."
Location may also factor into the Jumbos' success, as the Camels' flat course has been good to Tufts in the past. In their last three races in New London, the Jumbos have captured second place at 2005 ECACs, first at 2006's Conn. College invite and second at 2006 NESCACs.
O'Brien and Beck in particular have been outstanding at Conn. College, taking first and second, respectively, at NESCACs last season. The Camels also hosted the first win of Beck's cross country career, and her time of 18:06 at last year's Conn. College Invitational broke the course record by 17 seconds.
"It's definitely a flat, fast course, which is I think advantageous for the whole team," O'Brien said. "I think it'll be good for all of us. We've put in a lot of hard work, so we're looking forward to it."
"I think we're ready for it, and I think that goes for even the people who haven't run on it," Beck said. "They are also very well prepared to run on this different kind of course."
All in all, Saturday's showdown should be an exciting one as the Jumbos look to upset some of New England's best.
"I think we're stronger than we showed [at NESCACs]," Beck said. "But we still put ourselves in a great position to be competitive on the regional level and to potentially get one of those at-large bids. It's just going to be who shows up to race on Saturday."
