As of Jan. 30, Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) has bowed out of the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. His decision leaves the field open for Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Mike Gravel (D-Alaska) (although Gravel is unlikely to pick up any delegates). But just because he is out does not mean that Edwards has lost influence. By dropping out of the race, he has, arguably, gained clout.
Edwards' campaign, while valiant, appeared cursed from the start. When he accepted federal matching funds, Edwards limited the amount he could spend in each state - thus constraining his ability to front-load his efforts in early primary states, as did his opponents. His inability to build crucial early momentum crippled his campaign's chances in later primaries, especially those to come after Super Tuesday.
So why is the Edwards camp not crying? Simple: endorsement. While he trailed in third place in most states, Edwards was still supported enough to have an influence. Based on the Democratic Party's 15 percent rule (any candidate that has greater than 15 percent support in a district will receive at least one delegate), Edwards would have been able to pick up delegates in most Super Tuesday states.
In fact, Edwards received 31 percent of the delegates in Iowa, and 18 percent of the delegates in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Thus, Edwards' previously pledged delegates - as well as those that would've been elected if he had remained in the race - will be up for grabs between Clinton and Obama.
It is here that Edwards' power lies. Before, he was a bronze medalist with an expensive haircut. Now he holds the key to either democrat's victory. Obama, who trails Clinton by a small but consistent margin, needs to be the second choice of Edwards' supporters. Clinton needs Edwards to solidify her lead and secure the nomination. Edwards has the power to swing his endorsement towards one candidate or another. Unlike Rudy Giuliani, who bowed out and pointed towards Sen. John McCain (D-Ariz.), John Edwards has remained suspiciously quiet. Edwards is biding his time - waiting for each candidate to offer incentives for his or her endorsement.
And so he is the Kingmaker. His endorsement to one side or the other will tip enough support to break the tie. He carries not just delegates, but union, print and personal endorsements as well. Clinton needs Edwards to help balance Obama's growing lead in the southern states, while Obama needs Edwards' blue-collar allure. However, what both candidates need from him the most is a vice president.
Of all the current or former 2008 Democratic candidates, Edwards is the most viable for the second spot on the ticket. He's a white male, balancing both the race and gender. He's from the South. He is a friend of the working man and the union. Unless the Democratic Party picks a VP from inside (like the Republicans picked up Dick Cheney in the 2000 election), Edwards is the most practical candidate.
Even right now, officials in both the Clinton and Obama camps are locked in a bidding war with Edwards, engaging him with talk of absorbing his agenda, offering him political favors and perhaps the vice presidential spot this early in the race.
Before he bowed out, Edwards was stuck at the bottom of the ticket; now that he is officially out, his agenda has even more clout. His message resounds louder than it ever did before. Before, he was the labor-friendly $400 haircut. Now he is the maker of kings.
Dave Adams is a freshman majoring in political science and economics. He can be reached at David.Adams@tufts.edu.
