Back in early January, it looked as if the Eastern Conference championship was firmly in the hands of the Ottawa Senators. With a commanding 10-point lead in the standings, John Paddock's squad was on fire.
Just a month later, the Sens are fighting hard to keep their heads above water, with only three wins in their last 12 games. Their lead in the Northeast Division has been whittled away, with the Montreal Canadiens just a point behind.
A major reason for the Canadiens' success, and the Sens' failure, is goaltending. Montreal has posted a 7-2-1 record in its last 10 games, in part due to the outstanding goaltending of Cristobal Huet. In contrast, the Senators do not have a clear No. 1 goaltender, as both Ray Emery and Martin Gerber have played inconsistently.
Paddock has stated that his decision-making process will be based around "you win, you're in," but neither goalie has performed well of late, and neither is winning. Gerber's season save percentage is .911, and his goals-against average is 2.69, decent but unspectacular numbers. Emery's are significantly worse, at .889 and 3.01 respectively. However, Gerber has given up three goals or more in his last three starts and is not playing as well as he did at the beginning of the season.
Emery is already on Paddock's bad side for his off-ice behavior. He has managed to be late to practice on two separate occasions, earning the ire of his coach and a $13,000 fine from the team for each infraction. More troublesome than Emery's tardiness is an indication of a lack of team chemistry. Emery was late because he did not know where the practice was held; his teammates evidently think so little of him that nobody thought to give him a call when he failed to show up.
The Sens' once-hot offense has been hindered by recent injuries. Talented right winger Daniel Alfredsson was leading the league in points before he went down with a hip injury. He is listed as day-to-day, but the Swede's 32 goals and 36 assists are sorely missed.
The Sens are also missing the services of big left winger Dany Heatley, who played on Ottawa's top line with Alfredsson. He separated his shoulder and has been out since the start of the Senators' tailspin. The holes created by these two top wingers have been tough to fill. Fortunately for the Senators, Heatley should return soon, but Alfredsson's chronic injury is more worrisome. It has not seemed to affect him when he has played, as he posted a team-record seven points against the Florida Panthers on Jan. 24, but he has been scratched in five of the last eight games for the Senators.
The absence of the Senators' top line shows their vulnerability. They have been unable to get much secondary scoring recently from players like Mike Fisher and Antoine Vermette. When the Alfredsson-Heatley-Jason Spezza line is rolling, the Sens have no problems, and that lack of secondary scoring is a less important issue. Take away the top line, and suddenly the problem is front and center.
The vulnerability of the other team's top line is obvious. The Canadiens would not be making their run at the Senators if any of their top trio of Alexi Kovalev, Tomas Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn were injured. Fortunately for the Habs, and unfortunately for the Sens, the injury bug seems to have settled in Ottawa rather than Montreal.
The battle in the Northeast will continue Sunday on Hockey Night in Canada, as Montreal visits Ottawa in a battle for the conference lead. The Canadiens beat a Senators team without Alfredsson or Heatley last weekend, but with Heatley, and possibly Alfredsson, back in the lineup, the pressure is on the Senators to return to their winning ways.
