I spoke on Friday with Associate Professor of Political Science Deborah Schildkraut, who specializes in American politics and political psychology. We talked about Super Tuesday and what the outcome means for both parties in the race for the White House. The conversation took place before this weekend's primaries and caucuses.
Jamie Bologna: Do you think the Democratic race will go all the way to the convention?
Deborah Schildkraut: I suspect it will get wrapped up before then. I don't think the party necessarily wants it to come to that. I think eventually the superdelegates ... will probably line up behind the same person. Of course, then, you never know. I think it will be pretty clear by the time of the convention, but it might be pretty close
As long as it doesn't get too nasty, I think [a close election] is great for the country. So often these things are decided so early that voters feel like they don't have much of a say in the process.
JB: On the Republican side, do you see anyone emerging as a possible vice-presidential candidate [to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)]? Does [former Massachusetts Governor Mitt] Romney's departure from the race leave any doors open?
DS: A McCain-Romney ticket is possible, and I think it is more likely than a McCain-[former Arkansas Governor Mike] Huckabee ticket, but they did create some bad blood during this primary. After a primary, you always have to find ways to heal. They were unusually nasty and they don't particularly like each other all that much.
I suspect that McCain might go with someone who is not a governor or someone who has more experience at the federal level and someone who could calm some of the conservatives' concerns about McCain. Who that would be, I'm not really sure at this point. But I'd be pretty surprised if he chose Romney.
JB: What do you make of the [Rep.] Ron Paul [R-Tex.] phenomenon?
DS: [The] Ron Paul phenomenon is ... a lot of the party elite saying that they don't like McCain. It is clear that the Republican Party is going through a little bit of an identity crisis right now. You have ... party leadership wanting one thing, a lot of independent Republicans leaning towards McCain and then another segment ... that is frustrated with all the mainstream choices. They are going to Ron Paul as sort of a protest group. What I think you see happening with Ron Paul is just one piece of this larger story about there not being a clear set of coherent ideas that are uniting Republicans this time around.
JB: In terms of endorsements I've heard some talk here in Massachusetts about how [Sen.] Barack Obama [D-Ill.] racked up a lot of high-profile endorsements, but, in the end, didn't win the state. What do you make of high-profile endorsements?
DS: I think a single high-profile endorsement isn't necessarily going to matter. What matters is if you get a lot of endorsements, and if it gets talked about again and again in the media. It is a sign that you are gaining momentum and you are doing well. The endorsements become a part of this larger story about the trajectory that a candidate is on. And I do think that happened a bit with Barack Obama. He didn't win Massachusetts, but he certainly closed the gap a lot from what the polls showed. The polls were showing an over-20-percent lead for [Sen.] Hillary Clinton [D-N.Y.] in the week leading up to Super Tuesday, and in the end she won by [15] percentage points. So it did seem to help him, even though it didn't help him enough.
JB: There was a report recently about funding for the campaigns and how Hillary Clinton was dipping deep into her own pockets to pay for her campaign - to the tune of $5 million. Is this a sign of faltering support, or is this a something campaigns do from time to time to survive?
DS: It is both. At this point in time, in an ideal campaign, she wouldn't have to spend that much of her own money. I don't think Barack Obama is having to spend nearly as much of his own money. It is definitely a situation she doesn't want to be in. I don't think it is a fatal sign for her campaign, but it does mean she's hit a rough patch for fundraising, and she isn't bringing in as much as she needed to. So it is not good.
JB: Have the Clinton and Obama campaigns created bad blood so that it would be impossible to see a Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket in November?
DS: I'm not convinced there is that much bad blood ... but it is hard to imagine either of those tickets; they both really want to be president. You have to have a really big ego to decide to run for president in the first place. And to take the second-place spot ... it is not a decision they make lightly. [In addition], I suspect both of them would be interested in choosing somebody else.
Jamie Bologna is a senior majoring in political science and Spanish. He can be reached at james.bologna@tufts.edu.
