Another election year, another desperate cry for attention from Florida, our national insane asylum.
And this time Florida has a sidekick: Michigan.
These two states might cause a very large headache for the Democrats as Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) continue to struggle for their party's nomination.
Not content with throwing the nation's democratic process into disarray eight years ago, Florida might well be ground zero in another scorched-earth war of legal teams and backroom negotiations instead of legitimate elections. Now, I know there are a few of you out there who don't keep track of every decision from the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), so I'll recap:
Last year, the Democratic Party agreed to allow Nevada and South Carolina to hold a caucus and a primary before Super Tuesday, aka Feb. 5. The idea was to diminish the power of Iowa and New Hampshire somewhat, by giving some attention to other states. The party also wanted to send a message to Hispanics (a large demographic in Nevada) and African-Americans (likewise in South Carolina) that their votes were just as important as those of white-bread Iowa and New Hampshire. All in all, it was a good move.
Trouble is, other states wanted in on the action too. Hosting an early primary is a big deal. The influx of candidates and the attendant reporters, campaign workers, staffers and organizers is a huge boon to the state economy. Further, potential presidents of the United States have to prostrate themselves before state-specific interests to win votes - ethanol and Yucca Mountain would not be such huge issues if Iowa and Nevada weren't center-stage in the nomination process. So by holding early primaries, states gain money, attention and special treatment.
So the legislature of Florida voted to move its state primary up to January anyway. Michigan followed suit. For breaking the rules and jumping ahead without permission from the national party, Florida and Michigan had their delegates stripped, which is not as hot as it sounds. All it meant was that their delegates from their primaries wouldn't count at the national convention.
But it had been a long time since delegates mattered. The point of the primaries was to get publicity and momentum. While technically a majority of delegates at the national party convention are required to get the nomination, that majority always fell into place once a candidate won the first few primaries and built up unstoppable momentum.
Well, of course, Murphy's Law kicked in. This may be the first ever honest-to-God delegate race in American history. Neither Obama nor Clinton have scored a knockout punch, and the nomination will likely be clinched by whoever can cobble together a bare majority of delegates.
That's why Michigan and Florida's delegates are suddenly a huge deal. I write this before the Super Tuesday results have come in, so things could be different by the time you read this. But if things go as they seem they will, Clinton and Obama will still be deadlocked after Super Tuesday. And with two huge delegations won by Clinton (FL and MI), whether or not the DNC's ruling will be enforced could decide who gets the nomination.
The Clinton folks are arguing that the DNC is disenfranchising millions of voters by not allowing their delegates to count. Obama's folks reply that rules are rules, and they shouldn't be broken for partisan advantage.
If those delegates mean the difference between victory and defeat for Clinton and Obama, all hell will break loose. Should be fun to watch.
Michael Sherry is a junior majoring in political science. He can be reached at Michael.Sherry@tufts.edu.
