This week, Sudeep and Peter square off on China's role in the international system.
Sudeep: First it was the Communists. Then the terrorists. Then came Iraq and the Axis of Evil. Now China?
America has a long history of collective paranoia. The Chinese threat is just another figment of the neo-conservative imagination. With 1.3 billion people, China is the world's most heavily populated country. As it develops, its people will demand more goods and use more energy. To sustain growth and overcome its longtime poverty, China will flex its military and economic muscles.
But America has nothing to fear from this expansion. Chances are that China's increased power will ultimately benefit America. China is America's fastest growing export market. Poor Americans need its cheap goods.
In international politics, only China can help restrain countries like North Korea. Moreover, the Chinese and American economies are inextricably tied. China holds most of its foreign exchange (more than $1.5 trillion) in U.S. dollars. By the end of 2007, China owned almost $400 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds. With figures like these, it is unlikely that China will let anything happen to America. To threaten or attack the United States would mean suicide for the Chinese economy.
Even if China is irrational enough to challenge the United States, American military power will ensure that its people are protected. America has about 10,000 nuclear warheads, China about 150. Bush's new budget requested $515.4 billion for military spending; that's over ten times China's defense expenditure. Whatever happens, it is unlikely that China - or any other country - can pose a real threat to American well-being.
Peter: America should fear China. But not because it has the world's largest standing military or the world's largest population. Instead, America should fear China because it is a rising economic and geopolitical force. And unlike America, which has used its (sometimes misguided) moral compass in foreign affairs, China will not feel the same obligation.
While all the "unpatriotic" Americans are free to slander Bush and his administration, the Chinese have no such luxury. The Communist Party rules China, and it's not loosening its grip - and their power is already undermining attempts by the United States to coerce other countries. While Bush has focused on Iraq, China has been exerting its economic influence worldwide. In 2004 they signed a $70 billion oil deal with Iran, giving Iran sources of investment despite U.S. sanctions.
The China National Petroleum Corporation has a 40 percent stake in the Sudanese Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company. Even though the United States has sanctioned Sudan due to human rights abuses, it cannot stop oil exports, which continue to be the main source of the country's wealth. Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, is now China's main source of oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia. China has been gobbling up oil rights worldwide while the United States has been feeding its own debt in a military sinkhole.
China holds billions of dollars of the U.S. debt and is responsible for the largest portion of U.S. imports, so China would never take action against America, right? Wrong. In fact, this is why China would have an incentive to manipulate American action. I'm not talking militarily, as that would be ridiculous. But if China is able to exert global influence, we may get to see what being coerced really feels like.
Sudeep Bhatia is a junior majoring in philosophy; Peter Radosevich is a junior majoring in political science. They can be reached at Sudeep.Bhatia@tufts.edu and Peter.Radosevich@tufts.edu, respectively.
