ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi can say what he wants, but the first time college basketball fans will have any real idea of what the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like will be moments before it's officially announced, once all the conference tournaments have ended.
For bubble teams and locks alike, conference tourneys play a huge role in determining a team's March fortunes. For those on the outside looking in, a few wins this week can solidify a bid, while those toward the top of the polls could experience a nosedive that might bring about an unexpectedly bad seed.
In the ACC, the Maryland Terrapins haven't been doing themselves any favors lately. Once 7-4 in league play, the Terps have lost four of their last five, including a heartbreaker to the Clemson Tigers last week in which they blew a 20-point, second-half lead at home in College Park.
For Maryland (18-13, 8-8), a team firmly planted on a shrinking bubble, the conference tournament in Charlotte, N.C. represents a last chance to make a good impression on the tournament-selection committee. With a couple wins this weekend, coach Gary Williams' squad has a decent shot at dancing.
If Maryland gets in, it will be bad news for two other ACC bubble teams: the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Miami Hurricanes. The Hokies, who finished fourth in the league at 9-7, are hoping the selection committee ascribes to this year's conventional wisdom that the ACC is a four-bid league. VT's cause was hurt by Sunday's loss to Clemson, another game that saw the Tigers overcome a deficit late.
In order to be safely off the bubble, the Hokies will have to avoid losing their quarterfinal game this week against the winner of Miami and the N.C. State Wolfpack. Otherwise, there may be disappointment in Blacksburg on se lection Sunday.
Meanwhile the 'Canes are hoping their February win over the Duke Blue Devils will be enough to make up for an 8-8 conference record. Their 21-9 overall record, which is better looking than that of their conference bubble partners, is marred by a very weak non-conference schedule, a very important aspect of the selection criteria. Miami can make up for its cupcake ways with a couple of wins in Charlotte later this week.
In the Big East, two traditional powers will need to bring their A games to the tournament in Madison Square Garden. First, Jim Boeheim's Syracuse Orange played themselves onto the bubble by going 1-5 over a stretch in the middle of conference play. Since then, though, the Orange have won two straight, including an impressive home win over the Marquette Golden Eagles. Syracuse (19-12, 9-9) must sustain its late-season momentum this week in order to have any chance of dancing.
Syracuse's biggest in-conference competition for an NCAA bid will be Jay Wright's Villanova Wildcats, also 9-9 in the conference. The Wildcats are in contention for a bid despite a five-game losing streak that included losses to the lowly Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the St. John's Red Storm.
The Wildcats managed to win five of their final seven games, including a clutch home victory over the very tough Connecticut Huskies. Once again, performance in the conference tournament will either solidify a bid or guarantee a spot in the NIT.
And as if the situation weren't intense enough, Villanova and Syracuse meet today at noon to open up the conference tourney, meaning the loser of this game will almost certainly see its bubble pop at the final buzzer.
Out in the Pac-10, there is a remarkably similar situation. The Arizona State Sun Devils and the Oregon Ducks both find themselves with 9-9 records at the end of conference play. ASU, 19-11 overall, had a five-game losing streak of its own earlier in the year but managed to regain some momentum toward the end of the season.
Still, despite a victory over the Stanford Cardinal and a road win against the Arizona Wildcats, coach Herb Sendek's Sun Devils will need a very impressive showing at the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles, Calif.
In Eugene, the Ducks are hoping for the Sun Devils to falter early. Oregon rides a three-game winning streak, including a 67-61 home win over ASU. Tomorrow night, Oregon squares off with the Washington State Cougars, who have remained a top-25 team all year. If the Ducks get past WSU, their shaky status should improve to lock.
No matter the results of this week's conference tournaments, it is guaranteed that the makeup of the NCAA Tournament is still greatly undetermined. For those on the bubble, the next few days are the most important stretch of the season. For many teams, the mentality must be that of the single-bid old days: Simply win and get in.
