The Democratic nomination battle is over in all but name. Indeed, most knowledgeable political observers quietly came to that conclusion back in late February, when Clinton lost 11 contests in a row. It's a question of math, and there is simply no way to make Obama's 1,408 pledged delegates less than Clinton's 1,251. There is no remotely likely scenario that even would bring Clinton within 100 delegates of Obama.
As columnist David Brooks of the New York Times put it, "Hillary Clinton's presidential prospects continue to dim. The door is closing. Night is coming. The end, however, is not near."
According to Brooks, an "important Clinton adviser told Politico's Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she's probably down to a 5 percent chance."
So the Democratic Party has a problem: The game is still going on, even though it's the bottom of the ninth and the home team's ahead. But unlike baseball, the losing team can insist on keeping the game going, even past the point of no return. And that's the central question of the next few weeks: How long will Hillary prolong the inevitable? How long will she keep her party divided, distracted and bitter as she seeks an impossible path to victory?
To be sure, others had a role in this slow-moving train wreck of a primary season. One of the culprits, in my view, is a media which has kept Clinton afloat when any rational observer should have started the "time to drop out" drumbeat. Don't believe me? Ask yourself a simple question: Do you think that after Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), if Clinton had won 11 states in a row, the media would have been as generous to Obama? Do you think they would have presented him as just as viable a candidate as Clinton? Or do you think the calls for him to quit the race would have become deafening? Allen and VandeHei are exactly right when they argue that "The media are also enamored of the almost mystical ability of the Clintons to work their way out of tight jams, as they have done for 16 years at the national level."
I think that sentiment is exactly what's behind the refusal of the Clinton campaign to see reality. The media keeps expecting the Clintons to wriggle out of this mess as they have so many times in the past. Problem is, math can't be debated and numbers can't be charmed. Clinton could win every remaining primary with 60 percent of the vote - an absurd proposition - and still not catch up to Obama, and that's not a problem that can be solved with Bill's charisma or Hillary's legion of high-priced consultants.
It's also becoming clear that the Democratic "party elders" need to realize the damage this primary is doing to their party. Every dollar Clinton and Obama spend against each other is one that's not hitting John McCain. Every volunteer, every fundraiser, every attack ad that isn't aimed the Republicans' way is a boon to the cash-strapped McCain campaign. At a certain point, the party elders - Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Howard Dean - need to grab the rifle, solemnly lead the wounded horse out back behind the barn and do what has to be done. A joint Obama endorsement by the four most powerful neutral Democrats might jolt the Clinton campaign out of its slash-and-burn determination to bring the whole Democratic Party down with it.
Michael Sherry is a junior majoring in political science. He can be reached at Michael.Sherry@tufts.edu.
