After a flood of applications that made this year one of the most competitive in Tufts' history, students across the country are opening envelopes containing college decisions.
Although this year's applicant pool was at an all-time high, it will likely come as little comfort to parents and current high school seniors that the number of college-aged students is expected to decline in coming years.
According to a recent article in the New York Times, the 15-year climb in high school graduates will peak within the next few years, at which point the number of potential college applicants will taper off and continue to decrease until 2015.
That is, for the most part, good news, according to Dean of Admissions Lee Coffin, who was surprised by the number of applications that arrived in Bendetson Hall this year.
While the Admissions Office has not yet released detailed admissions statistics, Coffin acknowledged the exceedingly high number of applications this year.
"This year was the third most selective year at Tufts since 2001, and now that we're done, the acceptance rate was the second lowest in the university's history," Coffin said. "We admitted 25 percent, and ... some of the Ivies have single digit acceptance rates."
Contributing to the large applicant pool was the relatively recent addition of online applications.
"We're at the peak of a baby boom, so the easy answer is that there's a record number of kids graduating from high school," Coffin said. "The more complicated answer is that electronic applications have made it too easy to apply to 10, 12 or 15 colleges, so there are twin causes. It's a demographic issue, and you also have a technology issue allowing that group to apply to more schools."
All of that adds up to an equation that leaves parents and prospective students looking at difficult odds. Coffin said that the frequent news stories about college admissions do little to ease the stress.
"What's fueling it is this unending media interest in admissions. These stories are written and parents and kids read the stories and they get incredibly anxious," he said. "They think, 'I have to apply to a dozen colleges if I want to get into a good one.'"
High school senior Ian Barr, who attends Georgetown Day School in Washington, D.C., said that he initially felt "relaxed" about the college application process until his college counselor presented him with statistics that made him concerned.
"College counselors would say, 'This is the hardest year,' and with schools that are normally safeties, there's so many people applying that they're no longer safe," Barr said. "You have to see where the majority of people are applying. You no longer judge it on the difficulty of the school but by how many people are applying to the school."
Not only does the inundation of applications increase competition, but it also makes yield rates more difficult to predict, as evidenced by the Class of 2011. More students than predicted accepted Tufts' offers, resulting in housing shortages.
"The degree of difficulty on my computer is huge right now. It gets harder and harder every year," Coffin said.
By applying to more schools, students have complicated the process not only for themselves, but also for admissions officers at colleges across the country.
"I met a kid at open house who got into 22 colleges," Coffin said. "He said, 'It's between here and Middlebury.' I said, 'You've already said no to 20 colleges that were hoping to enroll you. Each of those deans is figuring out, 'How do we weight you?'"
The vicious cycle of increased competition leading to increased applications may taper off soon, however, as the number of high school graduates is expected to decline.
"The National Association of College Admissions Counselors has some academic research that has indicated that college-age students will be declining, and that this mini-bubble will be bursting of sorts," said Robert Andrews, director of college counseling at the Boston University Academy.
Coffin said he hopes that the predicted decline will have mostly positive effects.
"If it declines, it will depend on how many students continue to apply to more than 10 places. What I hope would happen is, as it becomes relatively easier to get in and the media began to report that, that would give students the confidence to not apply to 15 schools," he said. "It will, in a weird way, make it easier to predict the outcomes."
Andrews agreed that increased assurance of getting into college would be beneficial to students.
"It might seem to be a little less stress-inducing when a student knows the math and sees they have a better chance of getting in," Andrews said.
However, at top-level colleges, Andrews felt that standards will probably not be loosened.
"I think for certain schools it will make a difference. At the most selective schools, it will still be very challenging to get accepted," he said. "If there are less applicants it might be easier, but I don't think a school will change their qualifications to be admitted to a school because of that."
Coffin explained that, from the perspective of the colleges, the decline in applications is a double-edged sword.
"As a counselor sitting and talking rationally about college choices, it's a good thing if selectivity eases up. However, on the other side, college admissions is a prestige proposition. Whether I like that or not, it's true," he said. "One of the ways reputation is measured is by the size of applicant pool, and the degree of selectivity you have."
In addition to the decline in overall high school graduates, the geographic location of where students will be coming from is also expected to shift.
"We know the population will shift away from New England and the Mid-Atlantic, states that have traditionally sent people to places like Tufts. Places like Texas that have not traditionally sent students to northern colleges will grow significantly," Coffin said.
Reaching out to other areas of the country will be key for maintaining a certain caliber of student at Tufts, Coffin said.
"We've been focusing on California, Texas, Florida and international markets as places where Tufts needs to expand our visibility. New high schools open in those states all the time and we have to be there when they open and start the relationship. That's our strategy for being successful when the numbers inevitably change," Coffin said.
No matter where they hail from, or how large or few they are in number, Coffin said that Tufts applicants must be a good match for the school.
"We're giving you the opportunity to talk about yourself and to share information about what you value so that we can assess whether or not we're good partners for each other," he said.
Andrews expressed a similar optimism. He explained that whether the pool is large or small, colleges are still looking for the same qualities.
"I have to believe as a college counselor that it's a lot about matchmaking, and colleges will be searching for a good match based on the applicants in front of them," he said.
The burst of the admissions bubble might mean more promotional work on the part of admissions officers, but Coffin said that the shifts in population will not translate to shifts in the Tufts environment.
"Colleges like Tufts are enduring because reputations change very slowly. The quality of faculty and programs are superb and they're not going away, so my assumption is that it will be harder on the recruitment side. We'll have to travel farther and talk to more people to build the pool, but the essence of this university is strong and there's a story to tell that's compelling. That makes the case," he said.
