What's wrong with the Detroit Tigers?
A team picked by most to win over 90 games and have a great chance at the playoffs finally won its first game on Wednesday, after seven straight losses to open the season. Through Wednesday, the Tigers have scored the fewest runs in the American League and surrendered the most. They are hitting .232/.311/.339 as a team and have only five homers - two of which are from the man who was replaced by highly touted offseason acquisition Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge.
The pitching side is not much better, as the Tigers currently sport a 5.20 team ERA and have almost as many walks (33) as strikeouts (41).
Perhaps the worst aspect of the Tigers' poor start is the fact that it began at home against supposedly inferior teams. Detroit's first six games of the season were at Comerica Park against the Royals and White Sox, neither of whom can be considered a contender this year. Part of the reason Detroit was expected to challenge for the Central Division crown was the fact that the Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox are all unlikely to be good, giving the Tigers 57 winnable games. Detroit has already squandered six of these chances for wins.
Should Tigers fans simply give up now that their team is five games out of first place in early April? Absolutely not. Early-season results are highly scrutinized, since that's all we have to work with in April. But games in April are worth the same as the games during the rest of the season. This poor stretch is as likely to occur now as it is in the middle of June, when it would receive far fewer headlines. The Tigers have enough established players with long track records that one week of poor play should not change what we think of them. Their offense will "wake up" - also known as regression to the mean - and most of their offensive players should finish the season approximately where we expected.
Their pitching, however, does not appear to be a fluke. Detroit is severely shorthanded, in both the rotation and the bullpen, and appears to have no solutions for this problem. Justin Verlander is a very good pitcher but can only pitch once every five days; Jeremy Bonderman has the chance to be good but has been too inconsistent to be counted on.
Beyond these two, the Tigers' rotation is a patchwork of has-beens and never-weres. Kenny Rogers has not struck out 100 batters in a season since 2004; this is likely to catch up to him any minute. Dontrelle Willis is simply not the same pitcher he was in 2005, while Nate Robertson has always treaded the precarious line of giving up too many homers and not striking out enough batters; last year, his walk rate also rose, which hints at poor results for this year. Additionally, Detroit has very little depth to replace any current starters who get hurt or perform poorly.
The Tigers' bullpen is even thinner. "Closer" Todd Jones makes Cleveland Indians closer Joe Borowski look like the Twins' Joe Nathan in comparison. Jones has struck out 61 batters total over the last two years; few, if any, pitchers can maintain effectiveness with a strikeout rate that low. The crop of relievers in front of Jones leaves much to be desired: Currently, Detroit's bullpen sports such mainstays as Yorman Brazado, who struck out 4.5 batters per nine innings in AAA last season; 30-year-old Jason Grilli, who has a 5.19 career ERA; Denny Bautista and his 6.93 career ERA; and Francis Beltran, who has a 5.87 career ERA. Bobby Seay and Aquilino Lopez have some promise, but neither is likely to be dominant and both are far from sure things.
While Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya are both quality relievers, they are also both hurt. Zumaya is not expected back until July at the earliest; even if he does return, there is no guarantee that his velocity will return as well, considering the shoulder problems that he's had. Rodney is expected back somewhat sooner, but there is no timetable for his return.
The Tigers will score a ton of runs, their current slump notwithstanding, and their week of poor play will be forgotten as soon as they run off a winning streak. They are likely to give the Indians all they can handle in the race for the Central Division, and they may very well find themselves in the wild card spot should they end up behind the Tribe. However fluky their early-season results may be, the Tigers will need to overcome their pitching problems if they want to continue playing in October. Otherwise, they will look back to the first week in April and wonder what might have been.
