This month, the world once again commemorates the 1915 mass killings and deportation of over two million Armenians by the Young Turk regime of the Ottoman Empire. Ninety-three years after the first genocide of the 20th century, the United States and the international community should, at last, compel the leadership of Turkey to seek a real and sustainable solution to the Armenian Genocide issue by ensuring that the country comes to terms with its past, as well as adopts some much-desired changes in its policies toward Armenia.
The Armenian issue is one of the main foreign policy challenges for the Turkish state today, which emerges not only in its policies toward Armenia, but also in its relations with countries on nearly every continent of the globe. Vehemently denied by Turkey, the 1915 events have been accepted as genocide by over 20 countries of the world, including such important nations as France, Russia and Canada. In addition, 40 out of the states have affirmed the Armenian massacres as genocide, and this reality should not be dismissed as mere local state politics. These states, covering a huge portion of the country both in terms of geography and population, speak the voices of their people. Given this trend, then, it may be only a matter of time for the remaining 10 states to follow the footsteps of the others - which may eventually compel the United States government to affirm the 1915 events as genocide.
Last year, as the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee brought the Armenian Genocide Resolution to a vote in the full House of Representatives, it was certain that the resolution would pass with a majority of at least 227 co-sponsors. However, with threats of an invasion of northern Iraq (which eventually took place) as well as a possible halt to military relations with the United States, Turkey was successful in convincing the White House to use its acute leverage over several congressmen to pull out their support from the resolution.
But this cannot be interpreted as a political victory for Turkey for several reasons, the most important being that the congressmen have not argued against the reality of the Genocide. They have cited Turkey's geo-strategic importance for the United States, and at least one congressman who temporarily withdrew his support has explicitly stated that "it is a good resolution and horrible timing." In other words, these congressmen have arrived at the conclusion that genocide took place in 1915 and they are ready to support legislation that would set the U.S. record straight on this historical issue, but they will vote on it when their dependence on Turkey regarding Iraq subsides. Hence, the resolution has been postponed to sometime this year - but it will undoubtedly resurface.
It would be na've and premature to interpret this development as a final "victory" for Turkey. Rather, it can be seen as Turkey having indirectly bought some precious time - which should not be wasted. Turkey, foremost, has to use this opportunity to directly communicate with Armenia on this issue in order to avoid third parties, such as the U.S. Congress, from legislating history. Turkish leaders should immediately consider opening the border with Armenia and establishing diplomatic relations with the country. This move would not only help build bridges between the countries and their societies through economic and cultural contacts, it will also allow the two sides to understand and assess the issues amongst themselves. Without any preconditions, Armenia has already expressed its desire to open the border and establish relations between the two countries.
The Turkish leadership has very explicitly expressed its extreme discontent with the congressional resolution as well as similar preceding resolutions internationally. Doubtless, introduction of such resolutions will not stop here and will only escalate in the coming months and years, particularly as the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide nears.
I believe Turkey has an important opportunity here to prevent third countries from adopting resolutions on the Armenian issue by taking on the matter directly and officially with Armenia. Until then, the Armenian Diaspora, largely a creation of the great dispossession and mass deportations of Armenians in 1915, will continue to push for recognition through their home countries. This brings no real benefit to either Turkey or Armenia; it mainly brings a short-term psychological comfort to diaspora Armenians, who see no results on the issue between their homeland and Turkey and feel compelled to take the matter into their own hands. The United States and the international community should therefore challenge the Turkish leadership to adopt changes in its Armenian policy, which will undoubtedly benefit both sides and help build long-overdue bridges between the two nations.
Harout Harry Semerdjian is an alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.
