The Tampa Bay Rays will win the World Series quite simply because they have prepared too well not to. Every event in the franchise's history, from baseball's expansion draft in 1997 up until tonight's first pitch, has built up to this.
All the draft picks, all the under-the-radar trades, all the quiet, cheap free-agent pickups. A new GM, a new manager, a new business model. The best defense in baseball, an incredibly young yet perfectly reliable pitching staff, and an offense just barely good enough to get the franchise to this point. All of this is part of the Rays' winning strategy. This would be the absolute perfect textbook example of rebuilding, if not for the fact that no Tampa Bay team had won more than 70 games before this year's Rays. Instead, let's just call it "building."
In 2005, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays allowed 936 runs, the most in the major leagues. Their pitching staff was awful and their defense was even worse, and both had the numbers to prove it. Predictably, Tampa lost 95 games that year, finishing dead last in the American League East, 28 games behind the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, both 95-game winners.
The following offseason, three men arrived in Tampa Bay with change on their minds -- owner Stuart Sternberg, general manager Andrew Friedman and field manager Joe Maddon. It may have taken three years, but those three men have made baseball relevant again in St. Petersburg, Fla.
The Rays have found the least flashy way possible to reach their first World Series, assembling the best defense in the game. Call it a market inefficiency, call it what you will, but Friedman has quietly acquired one of the best defensive players in baseball at each position. At third, Evan Longoria is a star in every sense of the word, but it's a bit trickier to see the value in a right fielder like Gabe Gross or a shortstop like Jason Bartlett. Friedman sees it.
This year's Rays converted 70.8 percent of batted balls into outs, the most efficient defense in baseball over the past two years. Combine that with one of the American League's best pitching staffs, and you've got a pennant-winner -- and a clear World Series favorite.
After the marquee matchup of Scott Kazmir and Cole Hamels in Game 1, the Rays' biggest edge over the National League-champion Philadelphia Phillies will emerge: the depth of their starting pitching. The Phillies' Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton will square off against James Shields, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine -- a clear advantage to the Rays, whose starters' ERA was 3.95, second-best in the American League and sixth in the majors. The Phillies at 4.23 were seventh in the NL and 13th in baseball.
The Phillies have an edge in the bullpen, where five solid setup men are the opening act for Brad Lidge, who, at 31, has recorded a tremendous comeback season to once again become one of the best closers in baseball. But whether the Phillies will survive to the ninth inning to hand Lidge the ball is anyone's guess.
That may depend on which B.J. Upton shows up -- the one who hit nine home runs in 531 regular-season at-bats this year, or the one whose home run rate increased nine-fold in the postseason. Upton has seven homers in the playoffs to date; Longoria has six and first baseman Carlos Pena has three. The Rays don't hit doubles and they were caught stealing more than any other AL team; this is an offense heavily reliant on the home run. But they hit plenty in their ALCS win over the Red Sox, and they're not likely to stop now. Hamels and Myers serve up tons of them.
But enough about offense. This is the year that the Andrew Friedman Gambit -- pitching, defense and a minuscule payroll -- finally pays off. It won't be sexy, but it will be graceful, and more importantly, it will be effective. The Tampa Bay Rays have discovered an altogether crazy way to win the World Series. Just crazy enough to work.
