Every year, a new Cinderella finds its way into the glass slipper and surprises the nation by making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. And in the last seven years, more people have taken notice of these mid-major teams, as ESPN has broadcasted its BracketBusters Weekend to pit teams from these conferences in marquee games against one another.
In a year where parity reigns and the top teams in the nation all have major flaws, it is not inconceivable that a team from a mid-major conference will make it to the second weekend of the tournament in March. Last year, the Davidson Wildcats were agonizingly close to reaching the Final Four before a two-point loss to the eventual national champion Kansas Jayhawks.
At the beginning of the season, it seemed that Davidson was a good bet to be the next George Mason Patriots, who reached the Final Four in the 2006 tournament. With Stephen Curry returning for his junior season, the Wildcats had one of the best scorers in the country and the experience of having played deep into the tourney. Ranked 20th in the preseason polls, they were the highest non-major conference team outside of the Gonzaga Bulldogs, a team which most college basketball fans know can hardly be described as a part of the mid-major tier after years of success.
But this year, Davidson is in danger of missing the tournament altogether. Despite having Curry, the nation's leading scorer, in the fold, the Wildcats are not the same team as they were last year. With their star at less than a 100 percent due to a nagging ankle injury, the Wildcats lost their BracketBuster game Saturday to the Horizon League-leading Butler Bulldogs, which would've given them a key win over a top-25 team.
Part of Davidson's hardships have come due to the loss of point guard Jason Richards, but they can also be attributed to the fact that the Wildcats cannot sneak up on teams anymore. With a weak out-of-conference résumé, including a 1-4 mark versus the RPI Top 50, the Wildcats will likely need to win the Southern Conference Tournament to get into the Big Dance. Davidson currently sits in first place, two games ahead of the second-place Citadel Bulldogs, whom they faced without Curry. But with two conference losses in the last five games to the College of Charleston Cougars and Citadel, a win is not assured.
If No. 23 Butler is now the obvious mid-major team to back, which ones might be bona fide Cinderellas? At the top of the list are the St. Mary's Gaels, winners of three straight including a victory in their game over a previously ranked Utah State Aggies team. All this has been accomplished without the services of sophomore star guard Patrick Mills, who has missed the last seven games with a hand injury.
The problem for the Gaels, who at one point were ranked No. 22 in the nation, is that they play in the same conference as Gonzaga. Despite coming within two points of upsetting the then-No. 19 Bulldogs without Mills on Feb. 12, St. Mary's could be in trouble, as they are only third in their own conference. But if the Gaels find their way into the tournament and Mills comes back healthy, they should be a feared squad come March Madness.
Another potentially rough matchup for major conference opponents in the tournament would be the Creighton Bluejays, the leaders in the always-tough Missouri Valley Conference at 12-4 in league play and 23-6 overall. Their win over George Mason Saturday was their eighth straight, and with prolific three-point shooter senior Booker Woodfox leading the team with 16.1 points per game, they are playing as well as anyone.
And speaking of the Missouri Valley conference, two of the teams chasing Creighton suffered losses to a pair of dark horses this past weekend. On Friday, the Niagara Purple Eagles earned an important victory over Creighton's conference rival Illinois State Redbirds. Although the Purple Eagles boast junior guard Tyrone Lewis, the third-leading scorer in the MAAC conference at 16.5 points per game, along with the league's top rebounder in senior Bilal Benn, Niagara still is not the top threat from its own conference.
That team would be the Siena Saints, who have already clinched the MAAC regular season title and beaten the second-best team in the Missouri Valley conference, the Northern Iowa Panthers, in their BracketBuster game. Subtract a last-second loss to the Rider Broncos on Feb. 7, and the Saints are undefeated in their conference and have hung tough against teams like No. 15 Kansas and the top-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers in earlier non-conference matchups.
The most impressive thing about Siena is its depth, with six players averaging over eight points a game. Three of these players average more than 13.5 a game, led by senior Kenny Hasbrouck's 15.0 points a game. With that type of balance and their experience playing tough opponents this season, the Saints could score an upset in March.
But rather than wait until then, the fireworks will go off this Friday when Siena visits Niagara in a pivotal conference game for both clubs. Though a win by Niagara would not help it in terms of the regular-season race, it would certainly help its standings with the NCAA tournament selection committee.
These BracketBusters winners made a big statement on national television this past weekend. In the end, however, there is a chance none of them will get the chance to play in March. Such is the life of a mid-major, when weaker opponents with big names make the tourney and quality schools find themselves on the outside looking in. But whichever of these teams make it, expect one to become the latest bandwagon craze in March.
