As the 2009 baseball season approaches, many would say that the AL East is going to be the best division in baseball. Featuring the only team to win two World Series this decade in the Boston Red Sox, as well as the very young and still rising Tampa Bay Rays and the recently revamped New York Yankees, the league seems inevitably strong.
But there's another division that may offer even greater drama down the stretch. Look across to the other league and take notice of the NL East, where there are four teams that could reasonably emerge from 2009 with the division title.
Let's start with the defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies. They've made almost no offseason changes except for the slight downgrade from Pat Burrell to Raul Ibanez. They still feature an offense headed by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard and a rotation and bullpen keyed by Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. All things considered, it's safe to say they're the favorites.
Then there are the New York Mets. After finishing one game shy of a wild card berth last year, they've made the necessary additions to improve a bullpen that was 23rd in the majors in ERA and compiled the eighth-most losses. They signed Francisco Rodriguez, who owns a career 2.35 ERA and 208 saves, and traded for J.J. Putz, who posted a ridiculous 1.38 ERA and .153 batting average against in 2007 before dealing with injuries in 2008. With that bullpen, in addition to a rock-solid lineup and a rotation headed by perennial Cy Young candidate Johan Santana, it seems reasonable for the Mets to dominate not only the division but the entire league.
The Atlanta Braves could string together a surprisingly impressive season as well. Their hitting isn't that good on paper, but the depth of their rotation cannot be overlooked. It starts out with Derek Lowe, who posted his lowest WHIP in six years last season; Javier Vazquez, who has struck out 200 or more for the past two seasons; and Jair Jurrjens, who posted a 3.68 ERA last year as a rookie. Then there's 305-game winner Tom Glavine; Kenshin Kawakami, the league's latest Japanese import; and Jorge Campillo, who had a 3.91 ERA last year in his first full major-league season at 30 years of age. Plus there's 22-year-old phenom Tommy Hanson, who has a 2.45 ERA this spring, just waiting in the minors for when he's needed.
But perhaps the most overlooked team heading into the new season is the Florida Marlins. Here's an interesting stat: Player A posted a 1.10 WHIP and 92 strikeouts compared to 28 walks after the All-Star break, while Player B totaled a 0.99 WHIP and 98 strikeouts against just 12 walks over that time. Would you believe that Player A is Johan Santana and Player B is Ricky Nolasco, unknown ace of the Marlins?
Let's try a quiz this time: Of all the rookies to start at least 10 games last year, who had the lowest ERA? Answer: Chris Volstad, projected third starter for the Fish. Between Nolasco and Volstad, the Marlins have 25-year-old Josh Johnson, who put together a 3.61 ERA last year despite coming off Tommy John surgery, while the No. 4 will be Anibal Sanchez, another 25-year-old that already has a no-hitter under his belt. In the final spot, they will feature former North Carolina Tar Heel Andrew Miller, who, two years ago, was the hottest college prospect this side of David Price.
And we haven't even reached the hitting yet. Everybody knows about the Phillies' infield, yet Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla posted the most home runs by any middle-infield combination. It isn't even close: The Marlins' duo slammed 65 home runs, while the Phillies' Rollins and Utley were the second-best with 44. The Marlins will also have Cameron Maybin, Baseball America's eighth-ranked prospect, hitting leadoff, and a guy who's hit 28 or more homers twice in Jorge Cantu. So it shouldn't be a surprise if Florida is still in contention come September.
In 1997, the Marlins surprised everyone when they won the World Series. They had a fire sale after that season, completely rebuilding, and once more surprised everyone when they won it all six years later in 2003. After that championship, they did the same thing: sell off their best players and stockpile talent. Now, six years later, they might just be due to surprise everyone again.
