The number of new H1N1 cases, commonly known as swine flu, is on the decline at Tufts, mirroring the situation across college campuses nationwide and pointing to the university's success in containing the pandemic this fall.
The American College Health Association's (ACHA) weekly survey of an average of over 250 colleges and universities encompassing about 3 million students reported in the week ending on Nov. 13 the first decrease in the number of new influenza−like illness (ILI) cases with a 27 percent drop from the previous week.
The number of ILI cases continued to decrease in the following weeks, according to the survey. In the week ending on Nov. 20, the number of new cases dropped 37 percent from the previous week. By Nov. 27, the number of new cases dropped by an additional 69 percent, with only 71 percent of schools reporting new cases.
Tufts has followed this nationwide trend with the number of new swine flu cases peaking in the first week of November, when Health Service diagnosed 127 students with ILI, and declining steadily in the following weeks, according to Health Service Medical Director Margaret Higham.
There were 84 new cases in the second week of November, 32 new cases in the third week, and 10 new cases in the week before Thanksgiving, she said.
These results are typical of a pandemic illness such as swine flu, according to Higham.
"That's what we expect with a pandemic flu. We expect waves of it go up and peak and come down," she said. "We expect one or two more waves during the winter, but we are past the peak of the first wave."
Jenny Haubenreiser, ACHA vice president and leadership development advisor, believes this will be the case but stressed the uncertainty associated with any pandemic flu.
"With any disease like this, we don't know if there's a wave," Haubenreiser told the Daily. "We follow the lead of the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], and they're taking the leadership role of what this is going to look like."
Tufts has been able to cope with the widespread effects of the flu pandemic so far, despite some difficulties treating the influx of students during the first week of November. "It was a crazy week, as anyone who was in our waiting room would tell you," Higham said. "We had people sitting on the floor because there just wasn't room."
Health Service has encouraged sick students to travel home to self−isolate. In situations where this is unfeasible, the Office of Residential Life and Learning (ResLife) has housed sick students who have roommates in vacant singles in dorms across campus.
Director of ResLife Yolanda King indicated that the swine flu housing policy has worked well this fall and will remain unchanged for future waves of the pandemic.
King believes that her office has successfully managed the housing challenges that the flu pandemic has presented. She said that even at the peak of the swine flu season, there was enough housing for everyone with ILI.
Although the number of students contracting the illness at Tufts has decreased, there are still students with ILI self−isolating in various dorms on campus.
"For the flu housing, we're still using most of [the dorms]," King said. "Anywhere that there's a single, that's where we're assigning students."
As the effects of the illness at Tufts begin to dissipate, Higham stressed the uncertainty surrounding the future course of the pandemic at Tufts. "No one can predict how the whole winter's going to go," she said. "If we have waves as public health authorities predict, this is the first wave, and there will be more. We don't know. No one knows how it's going to behave; no one can say for sure."
